293
FXUS63 KMPX 160755
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS DROP BACK TODAY, WITH BLOWING SNOW ENDING AS THEY DIMINISH.
- COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, BACK ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER WEDNESDAY.
- QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE DIGGING TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT OUR WINTER STORM IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WITH THE AXIS TILTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM NNW TO SSE,
PLACING OUR AREA WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION REGION.
AS SUCH, SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TODAY COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LINGERING
SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO DIFFERING PRESSURE AREAS, WHICH IS
KEEPING OUR WINDS BLUSTERY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO BLOW
AROUND THE FRESH SNOW RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS
DESPITE NO NEW SNOW FALLING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THIS POINT, WITH
THE AREA-WIDE 511 MAP SHOWING ICE/SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. WITH WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, WE SHOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY SLICK
MORNING COMMUTE AS THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH
VEHICLES DRIVING ON BLOWING SNOW RESULTS IN A THIN LAYER OF ICE
UNDERNEATH ANY FRESH SNOW BLOWING ON TOP. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A
LINE OF CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA, AND ONCE THE SUN RISES WE SHOULD SEE ROADS
QUICKLY BECOME WET DESPITE TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD DUE TO THE
EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME COSMETIC FLURRIES TODAY UNDERNEATH THE LINGERING STRATUS DECK
OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI, BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD SEE NO
PRECIPITATION WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY ERODING BY THE END OF THE
DAY.
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER THIS
TIME WITHOUT THE WINDS SUCH THAT WIND CHILLS WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT
A BIT WARMER TO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS RETURN HALFWAY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A QUICK MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VIA AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND LOWER-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE, HOWEVER
THIS TIME BEING VERTICALLY ORIENTED WHICH WILL KEEP RESIDENCE TIME
SHORT. A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH A HIGH
END OF PERHAPS THREE TO FOUR INCHES, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE ON TOP OF THE MUCH SHORTER DURATION
COMPARED TO WHAT JUST OCCURRED DUE TO THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAC NW
AND NO ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHING EAST WILL INTRODUCE WAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES UNDERACHIEVING AT FIRST, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHT WARM BIAS DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER BEFORE OUR LAST EVENT
THAT HAS YET TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR. CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE,
WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER/FOG KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ENSURING VERY EFFICIENT MELTING AS LONG AS WE DO NOT
REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 925/850MB OF 12-18C WOULD
USUALLY SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 60S AND/OR 70S, HOWEVER WITH THE SNOW
PACK THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A BIT LOWER. SNOW MELT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MARCH 20TH IS THE SPRING EQUINOX WITH
OUR SUN ANGLE AND HOURS OF SUN INCREASING EVEN FASTER FROM THAT
POINT ONWARDS. WEATHER WISE ASIDE FROM THE WARM UP WE REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TOO FAR NORTH TO PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COLD WEATHER SYSTEMS, AND A BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS KEEPING ANY LARGER SOUTHERN SYSTEMS OUT OF THE
AREA AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY SHOWING HIGHER
VISIBILITY WITH LESS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE WINDS ARE
STRONGER, HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO OUTSIDE OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS
WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY 6SM OR HIGHER. WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
INTERMITTENT LOWER VISIBILITY AND MVFR MAINLY AT MKT/EAU/RWF,
HOWEVER WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH
THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF. WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z
WITH GUSTS DISAPPEARING AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
FLURRIES FROM AROUND 16-17Z THROUGH 03Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS,
HOWEVER THE CHANCE WAS LOWER THAN EVEN A PROB30 SO KEPT IT OUT
FOR NOW AND WENT WITH SOME LOWER CLOUD DECKS INSTEAD.
KMSP...AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME
FLURRIES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, GENERALLY
NON-IMPACTFUL WITH VISIBILITY STAYING 6SM OR HIGHER. WHILE WE
COULD SEE BRIEF VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM DUE TO BLSN DURING THE
FIRST 6-8 HOURS, THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WE WILL REMAIN VFR.
SKIES ARE CLEARING GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST BUT WE LIKELY
REMAIN BLOCKED BY LOWER-MID LEVEL CIGS UNTIL THEY SCATTER OUT
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-KANDIYOHI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEVENS-SWIFT.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RICE-
STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-MARTIN.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MARTIN.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST.
CROIX.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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