695
FXUS63 KMPX 161057
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS DROP BACK TODAY, WITH BLOWING SNOW ENDING AS THEY DIMINISH.
- COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, BACK ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER WEDNESDAY.
- QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE DIGGING TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT OUR WINTER STORM IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WITH THE AXIS TILTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM NNW TO SSE,
PLACING OUR AREA WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION REGION.
AS SUCH, SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TODAY COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LINGERING
SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO DIFFERING PRESSURE AREAS, WHICH IS
KEEPING OUR WINDS BLUSTERY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH WIND TONIGHT TO BLOW
AROUND THE FRESH SNOW RESULTING IN VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS
DESPITE NO NEW SNOW FALLING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THIS POINT, WITH
THE AREA-WIDE 511 MAP SHOWING ICE/SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. WITH WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, WE SHOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY SLICK
MORNING COMMUTE AS THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH
VEHICLES DRIVING ON BLOWING SNOW RESULTS IN A THIN LAYER OF ICE
UNDERNEATH ANY FRESH SNOW BLOWING ON TOP. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A
LINE OF CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA, AND ONCE THE SUN RISES WE SHOULD SEE ROADS
QUICKLY BECOME WET DESPITE TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD DUE TO THE
EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME COSMETIC FLURRIES TODAY UNDERNEATH THE LINGERING STRATUS DECK
OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI, BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD SEE NO
PRECIPITATION WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY ERODING BY THE END OF THE
DAY.
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER THIS
TIME WITHOUT THE WINDS SUCH THAT WIND CHILLS WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT
A BIT WARMER TO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS RETURN HALFWAY THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A QUICK MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA VIA AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND LOWER-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE, HOWEVER
THIS TIME BEING VERTICALLY ORIENTED WHICH WILL KEEP RESIDENCE TIME
SHORT. A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH A HIGH
END OF PERHAPS THREE TO FOUR INCHES, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE ON TOP OF THE MUCH SHORTER DURATION
COMPARED TO WHAT JUST OCCURRED DUE TO THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAC NW
AND NO ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHING EAST WILL INTRODUCE WAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES UNDERACHIEVING AT FIRST, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHT WARM BIAS DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW COVER BEFORE OUR LAST EVENT
THAT HAS YET TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR. CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE,
WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER/FOG KEEPING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ENSURING VERY EFFICIENT MELTING AS LONG AS WE DO NOT
REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 925/850MB OF 12-18C WOULD
USUALLY SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 60S AND/OR 70S, HOWEVER WITH THE SNOW
PACK THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A BIT LOWER. SNOW MELT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MARCH 20TH IS THE SPRING EQUINOX WITH
OUR SUN ANGLE AND HOURS OF SUN INCREASING EVEN FASTER FROM THAT
POINT ONWARDS. WEATHER WISE ASIDE FROM THE WARM UP WE REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET TOO FAR NORTH TO PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COLD WEATHER SYSTEMS, AND A BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS KEEPING ANY LARGER SOUTHERN SYSTEMS OUT OF THE
AREA AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WITH OBS SHOWING BLOWING SNOW LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING, ALL SITES HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP TO VFR AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 25-30KTS THROUGH THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD, BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICKER CLOUDS OFF IN WI FOR RNH/EAU, WITH
SPORADIC STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS STRATUS LINE
WILL PERSIST INTO THE REST OF THE DAY, BECOMING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE ANYTHING. CLOUDS LOWER TO LOW VFR, POSSIBLY HIGH
MVFR, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE A CONSISTENT CIG REMAINING
SCT MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK AFTER 00Z WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RICE-STEELE-
WASECA-WATONWAN.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-MARTIN.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MARTIN.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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