650
FXUS63 KMPX 161629
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1129 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, DECREASING WINDS WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW, BRINING SLICK ROADS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND A BRIGHT
FRESH SNOWPACK FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO EXPECT SNOWFALL
RATES AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE END RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES
OF SNOW. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP 3, WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT
4 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH AS
THE SNOW FALLS, SO COULD HAVE SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. THE
SNOW WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY, LINGERING IMPACTS FROM SNOW-COVERED
ROADS WILL LEAD TO SLOW TRAVEL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
RECOVERY ON ROADS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE MAIN STORY IS THIS WARMING
TREND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WITH OBS SHOWING BLOWING SNOW LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING, ALL SITES HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP TO VFR AND ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 25-30KTS THROUGH THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD, BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE THICKER CLOUDS OFF IN WI FOR RNH/EAU, WITH
SPORADIC STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA. THIS STRATUS LINE
WILL PERSIST INTO THE REST OF THE DAY, BECOMING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES THAT WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE ANYTHING. CLOUDS LOWER TO LOW VFR, POSSIBLY HIGH
MVFR, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE A CONSISTENT CIG REMAINING
SCT MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL DROP BACK AFTER 00Z WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...TDH
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