626
FXUS63 KMPX 161732
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, DECREASING WINDS WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW, BRINING SLICK ROADS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND A BRIGHT
FRESH SNOWPACK FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO EXPECT SNOWFALL
RATES AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE END RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES
OF SNOW. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP 3, WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT
4 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH AS
THE SNOW FALLS, SO COULD HAVE SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. THE
SNOW WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY, LINGERING IMPACTS FROM SNOW-COVERED
ROADS WILL LEAD TO SLOW TRAVEL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
RECOVERY ON ROADS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE MAIN STORY IS THIS WARMING
TREND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT IS NOW CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES WEST OF THE MN/WI LINE ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR, WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF CU AROUND 3-4K FEET. EAST OF THE
STATE BORDER, A WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK REMAINS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF A HIGH MVFR CIG IN THE
FORECAST AT RNH/EAU THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS
TO VFR OVER TIME. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN
SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE MVFR (CHC IFR) VISIBILITY AND 1-3" OF
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
KMSP...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN INCOMING ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW. HAVE INTRODUCED 6SM -SN STARTING AT 21Z TUESDAY.
IT'S LIKELY THAT WE'LL NEED TO INTRODUCE MUCH MORE DEGRADED
VISIBILITY BEYOND 00Z IN UPCOMING TAFS. LATEST FORECAST CALLS
FOR 1-3" OF SNOW AT MSP TUESDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW TO SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...STRUS
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