438
FXUS63 KMPX 170046
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
746 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, DECREASING WINDS WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW, BRINING SLICK ROADS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND A BRIGHT
FRESH SNOWPACK FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE
MUCH COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE.
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SNOW
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, SO EXPECT SNOWFALL
RATES AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. THE END RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES
OF SNOW. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP 3, WITH A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT
4 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH AS
THE SNOW FALLS, SO COULD HAVE SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. THE
SNOW WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY, LINGERING IMPACTS FROM SNOW-COVERED
ROADS WILL LEAD TO SLOW TRAVEL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK
RECOVERY ON ROADS. LOOKING AHEAD, THE MAIN STORY IS THIS WARMING
TREND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
LOW VFR CLOUDS ARE EXITING EAST AWAY FROM RNH AND EAU AND WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY AT MOST SITES TO START THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF
THE S/SE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL
LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO 1-2SM VIS
WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 1-3
INCHES.
KMSP...MOST LIKELY ONSET OF -SN IS AROUND 21-23Z AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. LOWER CIGS MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
THE LIGHT SNOW WRAPS UP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW TO SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BED
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