216
FXUS63 KMPX 170834
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, BRINING SLICK ROADS FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK WILL PUT A DENT IN THE
SNOWPACK. HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH REMAINS ON THE GROUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AT THE MOMENT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITHIN ZERO. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
LATEST BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT MSP IS IN TWO WEEKS
ON MARCH 31. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AND LOWER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
DRY AT THE MOMENT, BUT WILL SATURATE AS SNOW FALLS INTO IT. IT
WILL TAKE ABOUT 4 HOURS FOR THIS PROCESS TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE
SNOW BEGINS REACHING THE SURFACE. ONCE IT DOES, WE'LL HAVE A
VERY DEEP DGZ OF 15-20 KFT AND WEAK OMEGA TO AID IN SNOW RATES
FOR THE EVENING RUSH. THOSE TRAVELING WEST MAY ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS DUE TO RAPID FINAL SATURATION AND FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH. THE COLUMN WILL WARM ABOVE THE DGZ A FEW
HOURS LATER AND THEN MID LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT. THE DRYING MAY ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE, PROVIDED WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH OMEGA IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THE COLUMN WILL DRY EVEN FURTHER MID TO LATE EVENING
WHICH WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE, MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS CAN REACH 3 INCHES IN
AREAS THAT MAINTAIN THE DEEP DGZ THE LONGEST.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE SNOWPACK IS QUITE COLD
CURRENTLY. AS RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS WORKS EAST, MUCH WARMER
AIR ALOFT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND A STOUT INVERSION AROUND 2 KFT
WILL DEVELOP. SURFACE DEW POINTS ALSO RISE WELL INTO THE 30S
WEDNESDAY ATOP THE COLD SNOWPACK. THIS SHOULD AT A MINIMUM
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS BELOW THE INVERSION AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG INTO THURSDAY. SINCE THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN CRUSTED
OVER BY SEVERAL FREEZE-THAW CYCLES, IT WILL BE IN A PRIMED STATE
TO MELT AND MAY DO SO QUICKLY.
THE RECORD-SHATTERING HEAT DOME OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT INCREASINGLY
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL RESULT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE SNOWPACK DWINDLES. CURRENT MODELED SNOW DEPTH VARIES QUITE
A BIT FROM MODEL TO MODEL, WITH THE GFS NOT HANDLING IT
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH 3.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. BY
SATURDAY THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN THE NBM IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE,
RANGING FROM THE 40S WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE, TO NEAR 70 WITH
THE 75TH. IF BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY MOST OF THE SNOW IS
MELTED, THEN THE WARMER SOLUTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE
PLAINS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S, HIGHLIGHTING
HOW IMPRESSIVE THIS RIDGE WILL BE. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WILL
BE A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF THAT
WILL ALSO DICTATE TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW IT COULD COME IN AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY OR AS LATE AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AI
GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF BRING IT IN EARLIER. THAT'S A PRETTY
COMPELLING CASE FOR MISSING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY AT SPRING
WARMTH. FOR NOW, HIGHS NEAR 60 APPEAR APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE
CIRCUMSTANCES. ADJUSTMENTS UP OR DOWN 10 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHEN SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE IRONED
OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR VIS LIKELY. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET
MAY MIX IN TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN MN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN
SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS TONIGHT. -SN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 22Z
ARRIVAL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW TO SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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