677
FXUS63 KMPX 171910
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 1-3" OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK. OBSERVED SURFACE
HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STATUS OF THE SNOWPACK HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TUESDAY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY CAPTURES A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVER MINNESOTA. SNOW IS
REPORTED ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1-2
MILES AT CANBY AND MONTEVIDEO. FARTHER EAST, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
EVIDENCE ON KMPX RADAR IMAGERY IS DELAYING TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
NOW, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS PROCESS OCCURRING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SIMILAR TO MANY
CLIPPERS, THIS IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO, WITH HIGH SLR'S (15-
20:1) GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN OTHER WORDS, IT DOESN'T
TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THESE
REGIMES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST TODAY, WITH
1-2" EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR 1-3" ACROSS
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND THE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN AS THE WARM
NOSE EXPANDS NORTHEAST. WHILE THE AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS EYE POPPING
AS THIS PAST WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
EARLY EVENING TIMING OF INCREASING SNOW RATES. AS WE KNOW, IT
DOESN'T TAKE MUCH OF ANY FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO CREATE
SLICK TRAVEL AND TODAY'S SCENARIO IS NO EXCEPTION. OUR PLAN IS TO
INCREASE MESSAGING ON OUR WEBSITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL NEED AN SPS AS SATURATION
OCCURS AND SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE IN THE COMING HOURS. I WON'T RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A SHORT TERM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, THOUGH FOR
NOW THE PLAN IS TO WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND ROAD
CONDITIONS.
SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END
OF WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. DO SUSPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
AIR ADVECTING OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK WILL YIELD FOG/LOW STRATUS
CONCERNS IN SOME CAPACITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG WEATHER
STORY NATIONALLY WILL BE THE EXPANSION OF A JULY-LIKE ~594DM RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
EXPANSION OF 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BETWEEN 10-20C. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION LOCALLY WILL BE THE STATE OF THE SNOWPACK BY THE TIME THE
WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
STRATUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE AND SLOW THE
MELTING PROCESS. ON THE OTHER HAND, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S MIDWEEK AND INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY
SHOULD TAKE A CONSIDERABLE CHUNK OUT OF THE SNOW DEPTH. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY, SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
LATEST NBM SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAKE A RUN
INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGER
SPREAD IN THE NBM 25-75TH PERCENTILE RANGES, SO IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
OF A SIT AND WAIT BEFORE LOCKING INTO FORECAST HIGHS. I WOULD TEND
TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE
INCOMING AIR MASS AND THE MARCH SUN-ANGLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH IFR VIS
LIKELY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK TO VFR
LEVELS, BUT THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT LOW STRATUS OR BR
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. I LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO
ADD SOMETHING BACK IN ONCE WE SEE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICK IN WEDNESDAY AM.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 22Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
LATE EVENING. RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN
THE EARLY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW TO SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BPH
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