387
FXUS63 KMPX 172335
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 1-3" OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK. OBSERVED SURFACE
HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STATUS OF THE SNOWPACK HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TUESDAY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY CAPTURES A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVER MINNESOTA. SNOW IS
REPORTED ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1-2
MILES AT CANBY AND MONTEVIDEO. FARTHER EAST, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
EVIDENCE ON KMPX RADAR IMAGERY IS DELAYING TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
NOW, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS PROCESS OCCURRING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SIMILAR TO MANY
CLIPPERS, THIS IS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO, WITH HIGH SLR'S (15-
20:1) GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN OTHER WORDS, IT DOESN'T
TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THESE
REGIMES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST TODAY, WITH
1-2" EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MN AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR 1-3" ACROSS
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND THE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN AS THE WARM
NOSE EXPANDS NORTHEAST. WHILE THE AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS EYE POPPING
AS THIS PAST WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
EARLY EVENING TIMING OF INCREASING SNOW RATES. AS WE KNOW, IT
DOESN'T TAKE MUCH OF ANY FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO CREATE
SLICK TRAVEL AND TODAY'S SCENARIO IS NO EXCEPTION. OUR PLAN IS TO
INCREASE MESSAGING ON OUR WEBSITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA CHANNELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL NEED AN SPS AS SATURATION
OCCURS AND SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE IN THE COMING HOURS. I WON'T RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A SHORT TERM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, THOUGH FOR
NOW THE PLAN IS TO WATCH THE OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND ROAD
CONDITIONS.
SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END
OF WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LARGE
SCALE RIDGING WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. DO SUSPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
AIR ADVECTING OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK WILL YIELD FOG/LOW STRATUS
CONCERNS IN SOME CAPACITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG WEATHER
STORY NATIONALLY WILL BE THE EXPANSION OF A JULY-LIKE ~594DM RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
EXPANSION OF 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BETWEEN 10-20C. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION LOCALLY WILL BE THE STATE OF THE SNOWPACK BY THE TIME THE
WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
STRATUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE AND SLOW THE
MELTING PROCESS. ON THE OTHER HAND, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S MIDWEEK AND INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY
SHOULD TAKE A CONSIDERABLE CHUNK OUT OF THE SNOW DEPTH. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY, SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
LATEST NBM SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXTEND ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAKE A RUN
INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI. THERE IS STILL A RATHER LARGER
SPREAD IN THE NBM 25-75TH PERCENTILE RANGES, SO IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
OF A SIT AND WAIT BEFORE LOCKING INTO FORECAST HIGHS. I WOULD TEND
TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE
INCOMING AIR MASS AND THE MARCH SUN-ANGLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MOST SITES ARE STARTING OUT WITH MVFR-WORTHY SNOW AT THE START
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-DURATION IFR CONDITIONS. THE ISSUE IS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PREVENTING WHAT LOOKS LIKE IMPRESSIVE ECHOES
ON KMPX RADAR FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WESTERN MN IS HAVING
THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK DOWN THE MOST, THUS DEEPER
VISIBILITY ISSUES OUT WEST, WHILE EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI
STILL HAVE A LOT MORE DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME. STILL, CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR-LEVEL VISIBILITY IN BEING ACHIEVED OVER THE FIRST 4
HOURS OR SO, THUS HAVE HANDLED THAT UNCERTAINTY VIA TEMPO
GROUPS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD TO VFR,
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES ATOP THE FRESH SNOWPACK. SIMILARLY, WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT, FOG IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN LATER TAFS.
KMSP...VERY LIGHT SNOW HAS STARTED BEING REPORTED IN THE LAST
HOUR OR SO AT MSP, WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING BETWEEN 5-6SM. THE
MVFR-RANGE VISIBILITY LOOKS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING, BUT A
FEW OBS DOWN TO IFR CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT. RATES WILL BE
PRETTY LIGHT, NO MORE THAN 0.25 IN/HR FOR THIS SNOWFALL THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO
RETURN TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL DELVE DEEPER INTO THAT
POTENTIAL WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW TO SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...JPC
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