030
FXUS63 KMPX 181915
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
215 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW STRATUS & FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT & THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH THE MELTING SNOWPACK. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/FOG & LINGERING SNOWPACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE GREAT MELT OF 2026 HAS KICKED INTO OVERDRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
A FEW SITES IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SW MN. A
STRIP OF COOLER SITES CAN BE FOUND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO W WI
AND THIS IS TIED TO TWO THINGS. THESE LOCATIONS RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND & WERE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT FROM
THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. LOOKING AHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE MELT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS AND
TONIGHT'S FORECAST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AS RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS
BUILDS EAST, WE WILL OBSERVE A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TODAY AND
AN INVERSION AROUND 2 KFT WILL DEVELOP. THIS INVERSION SHOULD STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ACTING TO LOCK IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW MELT. I HAVE OPTED TO LEAN INTO
THE SCENARIO THAT SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA THE SNOW MELT & LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A PERFECT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT & THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SIMILAR
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE FOG & STRATUS COULD PLAY INTO HOW WARM
SOME LOCATIONS END UP. BY FRIDAY, THE SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE
MELTED OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN, AND STRONGER SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY MORNING STRATUS. THIS WILL
ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WITHOUT THE RESTRICTION OF SNOW PACK
OR CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE, WITH
50S LINGERING FARTHER NORTHEAST WHERE THE DEEPER SNOW MAY STILL BE
HANGING ON. ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES PEAK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. ALOFT, A THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING
WITH IT 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF +18 TO +22 C. THIS SIGNALS THAT SOME
LOCATIONS IN S/SW MN COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE
70S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 80S UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, BUT THE AIFS & ECMWF CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THE SATURDAY EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR S & SW MN
SATURDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK - A
WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE MARCH SPRING WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLEARING LINE, IT MAY BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE FOR KRNH
AND KEAU. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE TONIGHT, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. I HAVE ADDED & INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD
OF BR/FG IN THIS SET OF TAFS. WHILE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD
SLOW THE PROCESS, LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT FOG. FOG
WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY AM. LOW
STRATUS LIKELY REMAINS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE FEEDBACK LOOP WITH
SNOWMELT & LIGHT WINDS.
KMSP...IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH
FOG/MIST. CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF
WHEN VSBY IMPROVES TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS BY LATE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page