770
FXUS63 KMPX 031808
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER MESSY EARLY SPRING SYSTEM TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH
RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
- ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL STORMS POSSIBLE.
- THE COLD AIR STICKS AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OUR NEXT
WARM UP ARRIVING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
TODAY... WITH THURSDAY'S SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WE ARE IN THE CALM BETWEEN THE TWO
EVENTS. THIS BREAK WILL NOT LAST LONG AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN LATER TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LARGE AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS DRIVEN BY THE WARM AIR
WRAPPED UP INTO THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
COULD WELL CREATE A TROWAL (PROVIDING FOR A POSSIBLE BOOM
SCENARIO FROM FGEN BASED SNOWFALL). THIS WARM AIR WRAPPED UP IS
ALSO THE KEY FEATURE FOR OUR ELEVATED CAPE FOR THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTH. AS WITH THE LAST SYSTEM, THAT CAME THROUGH YESTERDAY,
THERE WILL BE A VARIETY OF IMPACTS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM THE NEWEST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND THE AIFS HAS COME A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS NOW GIVES MORE OF A CHANCE FOR ICE ACROSS A WIDER
AREA OF WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WERE EXPANDED. THIS SAME SHIFT ALSO TOOK SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL FARTHER SOUTH, SO AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WAS TAKEN IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FOR THE WARNING AREA
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS THESE COUNTIES
WITH 6 OR 7 INCHES AND IN THE NORTH AND 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE
SOUTH. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TRACK THE TWIN CITIES LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LUCK OUT AGAIN WITH MAINLY A RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. EVEN TO THE SOUTH
THE INSTABILITY IS ALL QUITE ELEVATED AND SKINNY. SO IF A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CAN FORM THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WOULD BE FOR
HAIL WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW... THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW CONTINUING THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY THOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SHOULD BE SOLIDLY SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN THE LOW'S LOCATION WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTING NORTH FOR RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PUT NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE GREATEST RISK AREA FOR ICE ACCUMULATION FROM
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE LINE OF RAIN VS FREEZING RAIN WILL
LIKELY HAVE A TIGHT CUTOFF. THIS FREEZING LINE LOCATION IS THE
CURRENT AREA OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THIS IS THE MAIN AREA
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE DAY FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINE
UPDATES. UPGRADES TO WARNING COULD BE NEEDED IF ANOTHER SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH IN THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE OCCURS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND MONDAY COLD AS
THE CAA WILL BE PRESENT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOL
DOWN WON'T LAST LONG, AS THE CAA ENDS ON TUESDAY AND WAA
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE NBM
ON THURSDAY AS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT AS WELL HERE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS. SO STILL TOO SOON TO SAY HOW ACTIVE THE MID TO LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE, BUT THAT IS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ON ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND MAY ACTUALLY TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS CLOSER TO 00Z. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL BE FROM 00Z TO 6Z, WHEN WE WILL SEE MODERATE RAIN, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, THOUGH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE ON A DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY FOR OUR AREA, SO REMOVED ANY
TS MENTION THIS EVENING. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THERE'S A ZERO
CHANCE FOR TS, IT'S JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS MOMENT. LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN MN/WI, WITH
THE MPX AREA GETTING INTO A BRIEF PRECIP LULL BEFORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GET GOING IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. FOR P-TYPES, AXN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW, WITH THE
HIGHEST RATES EXPECTED 8Z-12Z. STC LOOKS TO BE THE SPOT WHERE A
LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH ALL OTHER
TERMINALS REMAINING IN THE RAIN BIN, A COLD RAIN BIN AT THAT.
KMSP...A SMALL TS POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM ABOUT 1Z TO 4Z, BUT HAVE
KEPT ITS MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME AS THIS WOULD BE AN
ISOLATED FLASH IF WE SEE ANY AT ALL. WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWER
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEY WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR DOUGLAS-MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR POPE-
STEVENS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SWIFT-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...MPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page