369
FXUS63 KMPX 040538
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY EARLY SPRING SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
WITH RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL.
- THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ONE DEEP SURFACE LOW
SITTING OVER WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE, WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW OVER EASTERN KS, ALSO WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF
CENTRAL CANADA WELL NORTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. ALOFT, A COMPACT
UPPER LOW COMING OFF THE ROCKIES OVER WY SITS WITHIN A CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WITH WEAK RIDGING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
KMPX RADAR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF ECHOES ARRIVING FROM
SOUTHWEST OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA. THERE IS QUITE THE
DELINEATION BETWEEN P-TYPES, WITH CENTRAL MN HAVING MAINLY SNOW,
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL HAVING THE WINTRY MIX, AND S TO SE
MN HAVING RAIN. WHERE EACH P-TYPE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE SHIFT SOUTH IN THE P-TYPE ADVERTISED IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING THE AIFS, SEEMS TO BE COMING TO
FRUITION AS EVIDENCED BY NOT ONLY THE SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH IN THE
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP BUT ALSO THE SHIFT SOUTH IN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. LATEST SPC GUIDANCE HAS REMOVED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
VIRTUALLY ENTIRELY FROM OUR COVERAGE AREA (BY THE OUTLINE, A
SMALL SLIVER OF FREEBORN COUNTY REMAINS) AS INSTABILITY IS
HIGHLY LACKING ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE MIXING OF WARM/COLD AIR.
THAT SAID, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE PLAINS LOW, AND A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL SIMPLY DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING
LEVEL IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA.
BACK TO THE WINTER WEATHER HAZARD, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MORE
PREVALENT ISSUE FOR OUR AREA TO DEAL WITH THROUGH TOMORROW,
THE MAIN SWATH OF ICY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE PUSHING NE THROUGH THE
COVERAGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE AND TEMPERATURES MORE UNIFORMLY
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA, THE ICY PRECIP PERCENTAGES WILL DROP IN FAVOR OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW P-TYPE FOR MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF
OUR COVERAGE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERN WI WILL
HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF MAINLY RAIN AS THE P-TYPE, BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW CLOSE TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA
WILL SHIFT ACROSS IA AND INTO WESTERN WI, BEING NUDGED ALONG
BY THE COMPACT TROUGH ALOFT WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO MN. WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF, LEAVING MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE TEMPS SLIGHTLY EITHER
SIDE OF FREEZING, THIS WILL KEEP THE P-TYPES AS MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE AREA (SAVE FOR WESTERN WI
WHICH WILL HAVE THE RAIN, RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SNOW P-TYPES AT
VARIOUS TIMES). EARLY MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY IS WHEN THE BULK OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR IN OUR
NORTHERNMOST/WARNING COUNTIES, WHILE ICE ACCRETION DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MIXTURE OF RAIN WILL ALSO CUT ACCUMULATIONS
FOR MOST PLACES, EVEN IF SNOW SHOWERS DO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY MID-
TO-LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING,
COINCIDING WITH THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING WELL INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY-
TUESDAY AS CANADIAN-ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ESE OVER
NORTHERN MN ON SUNDAY, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
A FEW COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE NO HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT AT THIS POINT (HENCE, THE RELATIVELY DRY VERBIAGE).
OTHERWISE, COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND WARMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FLATTENS WHILE A PAIR OF POTENT TROUGHS SWINGING AROUND THE DEEP
HUDSON BAY LOW SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL SPELL MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN, POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS, FOR THE AREA FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
OUR SPRING SYSTEM CONTINUES WITH A WIDE RANGE OF IMPACTS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SNOW CONTINUES AT AXN (WEST MN) WHILE RAIN
CONTINUES AT EAU (WEST WI) WITH ALL KINDS OF MIX BETWEEN THESE
TERMINALS ACROSS MN AND WI. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE SO THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS HAVE EVEN VARIED BETWEEN VFR AND IFR AT
ISSUANCE TIME. GENERALLY HAVE BEEN SEEING A DECREASING TREND IN
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, SO EXPECTING A MORE CONSTANT IFR AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MVFR BY THIS
EVENING AND CLEARING BACK INTO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND COULD GET A LITTLE
GUSTY LATER TODAY WITH THE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
KMSP...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR OVER THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD TREND TO MORE CONSTANT IFR AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FROM
BECOMING FREEZING RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING WITH A WRAP AROUND PERIOD OF SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT YET CONFIDENT ON IF SNOW GETS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT MSP, SO OPTED TO KEEP THE PROB30 FOR NOW. WINDS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR BCMG MVFR WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DOUGLAS-
MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BENTON-CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR POPE-
STEVENS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SWIFT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...NDC
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