949
FXUS63 KMPX 041121
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA, FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
- RAIN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING, RESULTING IN A SHORT
LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TODAY...IT'S A DREARY START TO THE DAY WITH A SMORGASBORD OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE REGION, AND FOG AND CLOUDS
EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE NORTH AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, PROMOTING A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE BECOME MORE COMMON. THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO FALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA, AND FOR
THE GREATEST ICING TO OCCUR ACROSS A LINE FROM ISANTI/KANABEC
COUNTIES EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AROUND 3 TO 4 HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY
SEVERAL OF THE AWOSS IN THAT REGION ALREADY TONIGHT. THE TOTAL
EXTENT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS IS UNKNOWN TO US AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MOST PEOPLE ARE ASLEEP RIGHT NOW AND CAMERA COVERAGE
IS LIMITED OUT THERE. THAT SAID, SEND IN SOME REPORTS IF YOU
HAVE ANY!
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SPREAD EAST WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS LAST PUSH OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (UNDER AN INCH), THOUGH IT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST BY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE DOWN
THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RESULTING IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW WITH THESE COLD FRONTS, PRIMARILY THE INITIAL ONE
ON SUNDAY. A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO CALM TUESDAY
MORNING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE NORTH.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW COULD TRACK
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SURFACE LOW
EVOLUTION. RIGHT NOW, IT PLACES US SAFELY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
MEANING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S. A SECONDARY LOW
MAY FOLLOW BEHIND, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE FIRST ONE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW ACTIVE THE REST OF THE WEEK
STAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST NOW AND THE WRAP
AROUND REGION THAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW IS NOW MOVING
IN. THERE REMAINS SOME MIST AND DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THIS SNOWIER
AREA AS WELL WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY. CIGS GENERALLY IFR THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL RISE TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD GET AS
HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. IF SNOW IS FALLING AT THE SAME TIME AS THESE
HIGHER WINDS VISIBILITY WILL FALL INTO IFR AND MAYBE SOME
PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL.
KMSP...RIGHT ON THE MVFR/IFR LINE TO START THIS MORNING. SHOULD
BE MORE RELIABLY MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP
LATE MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE CHANCE PROB30 FOR NOW DUE TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IF THE SHOWERS REACH DOWN INTO MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...MVFR WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DOUGLAS-
MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BENTON-CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR POPE-
STEVENS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SWIFT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC
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