337
FXUS63 KMPX 041735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA, FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
- RAIN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING, RESULTING IN A SHORT
LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TODAY...IT'S A DREARY START TO THE DAY WITH A SMORGASBORD OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE REGION, AND FOG AND CLOUDS
EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE NORTH AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, PROMOTING A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE BECOME MORE COMMON. THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO FALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA, AND FOR
THE GREATEST ICING TO OCCUR ACROSS A LINE FROM ISANTI/KANABEC
COUNTIES EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AROUND 3 TO 4 HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY
SEVERAL OF THE AWOSS IN THAT REGION ALREADY TONIGHT. THE TOTAL
EXTENT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS IS UNKNOWN TO US AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MOST PEOPLE ARE ASLEEP RIGHT NOW AND CAMERA COVERAGE
IS LIMITED OUT THERE. THAT SAID, SEND IN SOME REPORTS IF YOU
HAVE ANY!
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SPREAD EAST WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS LAST PUSH OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (UNDER AN INCH), THOUGH IT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST BY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE DOWN
THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RESULTING IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW WITH THESE COLD FRONTS, PRIMARILY THE INITIAL ONE
ON SUNDAY. A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO CALM TUESDAY
MORNING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE NORTH.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW COULD TRACK
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SURFACE LOW
EVOLUTION. RIGHT NOW, IT PLACES US SAFELY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
MEANING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S. A SECONDARY LOW
MAY FOLLOW BEHIND, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE FIRST ONE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW ACTIVE THE REST OF THE WEEK
STAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A MESSY AFTERNOON ON TAP AS RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. CIGS GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. TIMING ON WHEN CIGS GO FROM MVFR
TO VFR SHOULD BE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
WNW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD GET AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. ADD
IN FALLING SNOW AND WE COULD SEE VISIBILITY WILL FALL INTO IFR
AND MAYBE SOME STRETCHES OF LIFR AS WELL. SNOW & RAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AM THAT COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN & SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDED A PROB30 TO A FEW SITES THAT HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
KMSP... WE'LL STICK AROUND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, BUT CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR WHEN HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. ADDED A PROB30 FOR SUNDAY
AM FOR POTENTIAL RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
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