336
FXUS63 KMPX 041928
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
228 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SEVERAL MORE PRECIP CHANCES MID
WEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE EASTWARD ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MN.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, RESULTING IN LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF
SNOW HAVE DROPPED TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES, WHICH IS THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
MN ARE LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR FOR
THE REST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S OR 30S
MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE.
THE PATTERN MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE THE POLAR JET
RETURNING TO CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BREAK
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT/OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH MILDER AIR NORTHWARD AND IT MAY BE THE LONE DAY OF
THE NEXT 7 TO REACH THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
WORKS THROUGH.
FINER SCALE DETAILS BEYOND THIS POINT ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN.
SEVERAL VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MAY INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE, BUT GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND
SHOWS SOME SIGNAL FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A MESSY AFTERNOON ON TAP AS RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. CIGS GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. TIMING ON WHEN CIGS GO FROM MVFR
TO VFR SHOULD BE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
WNW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD GET AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. ADD
IN FALLING SNOW AND WE COULD SEE VISIBILITY WILL FALL INTO IFR
AND MAYBE SOME STRETCHES OF LIFR AS WELL. SNOW & RAIN SHOWERS
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY AM THAT COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN & SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDED A PROB30 TO A FEW SITES THAT HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
KMSP... WE'LL STICK AROUND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT
CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR WHEN HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. ADDED A PROB30 FOR SUNDAY AM FOR
POTENTIAL RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-
TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BPH
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