669
FXUS63 KMPX 050516
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH SEVERAL MORE PRECIP CHANCES MID
WEEK AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE EASTWARD ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MN.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, RESULTING IN LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF
SNOW HAVE DROPPED TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES, WHICH IS THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
MN ARE LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR FOR
THE REST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S OR 30S
MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE.
THE PATTERN MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE THE POLAR JET
RETURNING TO CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BREAK
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT/OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH MILDER AIR NORTHWARD AND IT MAY BE THE LONE DAY OF
THE NEXT 7 TO REACH THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
WORKS THROUGH.
FINER SCALE DETAILS BEYOND THIS POINT ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN.
SEVERAL VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MAY INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE, BUT GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS
SOME SIGNAL FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS RETREATED TO THE EAST AND ALSO
SCATTERING OUT, WITH SOME RETURN FLOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA
BRINGING US AT LEAST SOME SCT/BKN LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR TOWARDS
SUNRISE. WITHIN THIS FLOW, WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA,
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW PROB30 LEVEL, MOST
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR RNH/EAU. WINDS WILL
TREND STRONGER AFTER 12Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE WITH A DIRECTION REMAINING
300-330.
KMSP...GENERALLY WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF CIGS COMPARED
TO THE 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS. AS SUCH, WENT LOW VFR BY 19Z,
HOWEVER WE MAY BE HOVERING RIGHT AT THAT 030 LEVEL. -SHRA
CHANCES ARE 20 PERCENT OR LOWER, SO OMITTED ANY PROB30 MENTION
FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. WIND SE TO SW
10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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