917
FXUS63 KMPX 050751
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
- COOLER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. FURTHER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH
THE WARMUP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE LINGERING OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US SPORADIC CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING AND SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SWIRLING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW, WITH SOME MID TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA STRUGGLING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AMIDST THE LEADING EDGE OF SUBSIDENCE STEMMING FROM AN
INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE AREA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE JUST
ENOUGH OMEGA TO FORCE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS VERY LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH AT
MOST AT ANY SINGLE LOCATION. BY THIS EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL
OCCLUSION WILL HAVE MOVED TOWARDS EASTERN CANADA WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE RESULTING IN COOLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH RIDES THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS TODAY WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE SNOWFALL FROM OUR
PREVIOUS EVENT IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND UP TO THE UPPER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S ON
MONDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THANKS TO BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER
OF -5 TO -10C WILL ENSURE THAT EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MIXING WE
ARE ONLY GOING TO BE BRINGING FURTHER COLD AIR TO THE SURFACE, SO
EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING APRIL SUN ANGLE IT'LL BE A BRISK DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, OUR COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY OUR LAST TIME
IN THE TEENS UNTIL NEXT WINTER WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
A RAPID WARM UP IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE 24 HOURS FROM SUNRISE
TUESDAY TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND FLOW SWITCHES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ON THE LEE SIDE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE A BROAD WARM FRONTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
ITS EASTERN FLANK, WITH A CLASSIC SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE
SETUP RESULTING IN ACCESS TO NOT ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO
GULF MOISTURE BY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL DOWN A BIT AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL OCCLUSION RIDES THE NORTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH BRINGS A COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW,
HOWEVER WE SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE THE
KEY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH THE MULTITUDE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
AIFS/ECMWF/GEFS ALL SHOWING MAJORITY OF MEMBERSHIP WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN
DIAGNOSING NOT ONLY HOW MUCH RAINFALL BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, AND WHILE THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR
PRECIPITATION, THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL UP
IN THE AIR. FOR NOW, EXPECT TO SEE SOME WET WEATHER TOWARDS THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS RETREATED TO THE EAST AND ALSO
SCATTERING OUT, WITH SOME RETURN FLOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA
BRINGING US AT LEAST SOME SCT/BKN LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR TOWARDS
SUNRISE. WITHIN THIS FLOW, WE COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA,
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW PROB30 LEVEL, MOST
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FOR RNH/EAU. WINDS WILL
TREND STRONGER AFTER 12Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE WITH A DIRECTION REMAINING
300-330.
KMSP...GENERALLY WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF CIGS COMPARED
TO THE 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS. AS SUCH, WENT LOW VFR BY 19Z,
HOWEVER WE MAY BE HOVERING RIGHT AT THAT 030 LEVEL. -SHRA
CHANCES ARE 20 PERCENT OR LOWER, SO OMITTED ANY PROB30 MENTION
FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. WIND SE TO SW
10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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