716
FXUS63 KMPX 051916
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
216 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH THE
WARMUP, CENTERED ON NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. THE BAND IS NARROW AND SHOULDN'T LAST
LONG WITH HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY, BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S OR 30S MONDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE.
THE PATTERN MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE THE POLAR JET
RETURNING TO CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BREAK
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT/OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH MILDER AIR NORTHWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
FINER SCALE DETAILS BEYOND THIS POINT ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE, BUT GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN. SEVERAL
VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MAY INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO TREND WARMER, POSSIBLY 70S TO LOW 80S, IF THE FRONT SETS
UP TO THE NORTH AND WE CAN FIND SOME DRY HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
AFTERNOON, LIKELY REMAINING EAST OF AXN AND RWF. A FEW TS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AT MVFR LEVELS, THEN CLEARING MONDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE 20-22Z TIMEFRAME
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. WIND SE TO SW
10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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