592
FXUS63 KMPX 052353
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
653 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH THE
WARMUP, CENTERED ON NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. THE BAND IS NARROW AND SHOULDN'T LAST
LONG WITH HOW QUICKLY THE WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND MONDAY, BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR FOR THE
REST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S OR 30S MONDAY.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE.
THE PATTERN MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE THE POLAR JET
RETURNING TO CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BREAK
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT/OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH MILDER AIR NORTHWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
FINER SCALE DETAILS BEYOND THIS POINT ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE, BUT GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN.
SEVERAL VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MAY INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER, POSSIBLY 70S TO LOW 80S, IF
THE FRONT SETS UP TO THE NORTH AND WE CAN FIND SOME DRY HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THIS EVENING, RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE NOW-PASSED SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BRING
ADDED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
DECKS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY AS LONG AS THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MIDDAY MONDAY,
SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT, LEADING TO A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS. BREEZY/GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF DURATION, NOT REALLY SETTLING BACK BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
MONDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS ALSO VEER TO NE.
KMSP...VFR TO START AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH CEILINGS AROUND 4KFT WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS THEN EXPECTED PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND
WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING PUSH, FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING FROM AROUND MIDDAY ONWARD. BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION, BUT WILL COME FROM A SOLID NW
DIRECTION, THUS NECESSITATING KEEPING OPS ON THE 30S THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15KTS LATE.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. WIND S WINDS
10-15G25KTS BECOMING W.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
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