642
FXUS63 KMPX 061120
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A MIDWEEK WARM UP WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY TUESDAY EVENING.
- TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WET WEATHER
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
THE SECOND OF A STRETCH OF THREE COOLER NIGHTS IS UNDERWAY WITH THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT BEING MORE WIDESPREAD
LOWER-MID LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT ARE KEEPING US A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S LIKE YESTERDAY
MORNING AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER UNLIKE YESTERDAY PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. ALONGSIDE THE NORTHERLY FLOW, CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP THE SUN FROM BEING WIDESPREAD WHICH WILL ALSO MAKE
IT FEEL GENERALLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY SUNNY SKIES
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE THREE WILL ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS THANKS TO -10C TEMP
ANOMALIES AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO CRASH A BIT. ON THE HEELS OF THE SURFACE HIGH,
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL REINTRODUCE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A BROAD WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BE WARMING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SUCH THAT AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, HOWEVER IT WILL QUICKLY SWAP OVER TO A COLD
RAIN AS THE WARM-UP LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MIGRATED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MANITOBA MIRRORING THE UPPER LEVEL OCCLUDED TROUGH, WITH RAIN
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH A BIT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING FAST ENOUGH DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SUCH THAT SNOW ON THE BACK END SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND HOW LOW WE DROP WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CAN SURVIVE POST-FROPA.
ANOTHER BROAD BUT OVERALL WEAKER SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND PUSHING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE RIDING THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT OF THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE A BROAD REGION OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW SPANNING ALL THE WAY FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE GULF
REACHING ALL THE WAY NORTH TO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA, INCLUDING
OUR AREA BY LATE SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH SET OF GUIDANCE YOU
LOOK AT, A SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO SPIN UP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL OMEGA DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT AND ABUNDANT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS IF WE SEE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEEP CAPPING INVERSION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM ROUGHLY 850-700MB. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST
INTO THE START OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS LAST AS LONG AS THE ENTIRETY
OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIRLY
REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY IN THE SURFACE LOW STALLING OVER THE REGION.
THE EPS MEAN SHOWS ROUGHLY A HALF INCH OF QPF PER DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SETUP, IF WE MANAGE TO KEEP A
CONSISTENT STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARDS WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW STALLS OVER THE AREA, A PERSISTENT MULTI-DAY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE TIMING BEING OVER A WEEK OUT THINGS ARE STILL
ABLE TO CHANGE, BUT THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR A FORECAST 7-
10 DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSIST FROM THE STRATUS DECK THAT IS MOVING THROUGH,
AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z FOR MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR EAU WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A BIT
LATER. ONCE WE SEE VFR, WE WILL REMAIN AS SUCH FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z AND
MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. WINDS BEGIN AT 320-350 WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-13KTS GUSTING UP TO 20-23KTS, DIMINISHING AFTER 18Z
AND BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
KMSP...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING AROUND 15Z,
BECOMING VFR BY 16Z-17Z BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. OTHER THAN
THE WIND SHIFT, NO OTHER CONCERNS ONCE WE GET BACK TO VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND SE 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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