190
FXUS63 KMPX 061943
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT, THEN A MIDWEEK WARM UP WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- A WARM, MORE HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE REGION WITH SOME LINGERING ACROSS
WESTERN WI UNDER THE CYCLONIC INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LINGERING SNOWPACK.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY
WHEN RETURN FLOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY LOCALLY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MN THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 50-60 KT LLJ. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN MN, GROWING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WI. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW INITIALLY, BUT
MILDER LOW LEVEL PROFILES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIP
TO TURN TO RAIN. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN PARTS OF WI.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE MN/ON BORDER
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MILDER, IN THE 50S, ACROSS WESTERN MN
BEFORE A LATE MORNING COLD FROPA. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING
FARTHER EAST COULD SEND EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN AND WI TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE DISPLACED EAST OFF THE
FRONT, SO MOST OF THE FROPA COULD BE DRY UNTIL IT REACHES FAR
EASTERN MN AND WI. ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WI, WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, ACROSS MN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S WILL PRODUCE
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL BRING ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PWATS BETWEEN 200-300 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING 50 KT LLJ BY LATE EVENING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
EFFICIENT. DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF DISSIPATION OF THE SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING, IT MAY BECOME QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY. 80S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WOULD REQUIRE SUN TO BREAK OUT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SPARK OFF THE NEXT ROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BETTER LAPSE RATES THIS TIME MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND PASS
TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY BISECTING
PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND THAT TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD. MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST AND MIX OUT OF THE PICTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING CONTINUES, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT FEW TO SCATTERED CU ~3-4K FEET OVER AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS RELAX AND ANY CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SUSTAIN ~10KTS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND S TO W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...STRUS
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