191
FXUS63 KMPX 071139
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD START TO THE DAY, THEN A MIDWEEK WARM UP WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- A WARM, MORE HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
WE'RE STARTING THE DAY OFF WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING
SNOWPACK. IF YOU ENJOY COOL MORNINGS, TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT NOW!
A WARM UP IS ON THE WAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE FIRST CHANCE COMES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO
WI. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THIS
EVENING, QUICKLY INCREASING DEW POINTS FROM THE TEENS TO THE 30S
BY MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MN THAT COULD EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST INTO WISCONSIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IT TAKES TOO LONG FOR THE VERTICAL PROFILE TO
FULLY SATURATE, LIMITING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL
WELL INTO WISCONSIN. OUR CURRENT POPS ARE CAPPED NEAR 30-50
PERCENT TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. PERHAPS THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING WOULD
ALLOW 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL IMPACT HIGHS FOR THE DAY, WITH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MANKATO TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S. THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
DISPLACED EAST OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD LIMIT ANY SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING AGAIN UNTIL FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN. QPF IS LIGHT,
EVEN IN WISCONSIN, WHERE UP TO A TENTH IS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH AND WE REMAIN MILDER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE LATEST NBM HAS INTRODUCED 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE WAVE LAGGING BEHIND THE STRONGER LOW FROM
WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A BUILDING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL US IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME, ALLOWING FOR AN ANOMALOUSLY WET AND WARM PERIOD. PWAT
VALUES COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID-
APRIL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH IT IS VERY
LIKELY THAT ANY GIVEN STORM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER.
THE AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL IN THE TWIN CITIES
IS 2.91" AND WE ARE ALREADY AT 1.39" THROUGH APRIL 6TH. WITH
THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN, IT'S LOOKING LIKELY WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST A
NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION, IF NOT ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR EAU
CLAIRE AND ST CLOUD, THE RESPECTIVE MONTHLY AVERAGES ARE 3.08"
AND 2.61" (EAU CLAIRE IS AT 1.40" AND ST CLOUD IS AT 0.89"
THROUGH APRIL 6TH).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
CLEAR AND CALM TO START THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, GUSTS OF AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER 00Z, CLOUD
COVER INCREASES AND MVFR CIGS ARRIVE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR A FEW SITES, BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
MVFR. FOR NOW, WIDESPREAD -SHRA CHANCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT DID INCLUDE SOME OVERNIGHT PROB30S FOR
OUR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HI-RES MODELS HAVE -SHRA DURING THE LATE
EVENING, BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A
DIP DOWN INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS
INCREASING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND S TO W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...DYE
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