613
FXUS63 KMPX 080605
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
105 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES (40S & 50S) THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR 60 ON WEDNESDAY.
- SMALL SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT, WITH BETTER
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS DAMPENING THE ABILITY TO WARM
UP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST STRUGGLING TO HIT 40. AS SUCH, HAVE
BUMPED DOWN FORECAST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOW 40S TO
UPPER 30S. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE
PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF WARM UP TOMORROW AND A MORE PROLONGED WARM
UP ARRIVING FRIDAY. A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP EXIST THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST CHANCE IS LESS CERTAIN AND ONLY SHOWING UP ON A
FEW CAMS IN THE FORM OF VERY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. THE PERIOD OF
DEVELOPMENT IS SHORT, AND THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THE
PROFILE WILL NEVER SATURATE AND THINGS STAY DRY. POPS WERE
REDUCED TO 10-15% AT MOST. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE INCREASED MIXING AND WE BLENDED IN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THAN WHAT THE NBM WAS FORECASTING TO REFLECT
THIS. THE SECOND, MORE LIKELY, CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
A BALL OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A TENDRIL OF VORTICITY WILL STRETCH SOUTH TO
THE MN/IA BORDER, BRINGING THE PRECIP CHANCES DOWN INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH A
SW-NE ORIENTED AND OF RAIN MOST LIKELY BETWEEN NOON AND 5PM
(EARLIER IN WESTERN MN, LATER IN WESTERN WI). QPF WILL BE LIGHT,
IF EVEN MEASURABLE, ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OR LESS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
FRONT.
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE AS INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL INCREASE THE ODDS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 200-300
PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW PERSISTENT OR STRONG
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH IT IS VERY
LIKELY THAT ANY GIVEN STORM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER.
THE AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL IN THE TWIN CITIES
IS 2.91" AND WE ARE AT 1.39" THROUGH APRIL 6TH. WITH THIS
WEEKEND'S RAIN, IT'S LOOKING LIKELY WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST A NORMAL
MONTH OF PRECIPITATION, IF NOT ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR EAU CLAIRE
AND ST CLOUD, THE RESPECTIVE MONTHLY AVERAGES ARE 3.08" AND
2.61" (EAU CLAIRE IS AT 1.40" AND ST CLOUD IS AT 0.89" THROUGH
APRIL 6TH).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE TAFS WAS AN OVERALL INCREASE FOR WINDS
AND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MANY SITES ARE GUSTING BETWEEN
25-30 KTS ALREADY AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE YET TO COME THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SE/S TO SW/W AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER.
CIGS WILL HOVER AROUND 3-5K FEET, THOUGH THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS MAY SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED TO
START THE PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
THOUGH AXN MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE AN EARLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN EAU THIS
MORNING, THOUGH THE LATEST TREND IS LOOKING DRIER FOR THEM. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM WESTERN MN THIS MORNING TO WESTERN WI BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST SATURATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, SO
AXN, STC, AND EAU CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH
THIS ROUND. IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED AS ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FOR THE WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WE MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TIED TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE SW/W.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND SE 15-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...BED
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