512
FXUS63 KMPX 080809
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES (40S & 50S) THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR 60 TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
AND WESTERN WI.
- SMALL SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
FAVORING WEST-CENTRAL WI FOR BOTH.
- A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.|
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH 30-40
KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN IOWA,
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH
THE HREF AND REFS MEAN WINDS PEAKING UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THAT
REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE GUSTS ARE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND
ADVISORY, WE LEVERAGED THE PRODUCT TO GIVE FOLKS WHO MAY BE
TRAVELING ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR A HEADS UP. WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, TODAY WILL FEATURE A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FIRST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI,
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST, KEEPING PRECIP AMOUNTS TO A HUNDREDTH
OR LESS EVEN FOR RUSK, CHIPPEWA, AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
TREK EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN, PRODUCING ITS OWN ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN. AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY FOR
OUR AREA, WITH ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEING CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BETTER DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AS THE LINE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ACROSS WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN STILL, QPF HAS TRENDED
DOWN TO AROUND 0.05" OR LESS EVEN FOR AREAS LIKE EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH IN WEST-CENTRAL WI. SO... DESPITE THE TWO CHANCES FOR
RAIN TODAY, AMOUNTS ARE HARDLY ENOUGH TO ALTER PLANS AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, KEEPING HIGHS
A BIT COOLER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SAID, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY, WE'LL BE LOOKING
AT A PRETTY SOLID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMING AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND, WITH TROUGHING TO WEST AND
RIDGING TO THE EAST. A CORRIDOR OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARDS IN BETWEEN, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THERE'S AN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SMALLER DETAILS, THOUGH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FAVORS A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN LASTING INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE TAFS WAS AN OVERALL INCREASE FOR WINDS
AND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MANY SITES ARE GUSTING BETWEEN
25-30 KTS ALREADY AND THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE YET TO COME THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SE/S TO SW/W AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER.
CIGS WILL HOVER AROUND 3-5K FEET, THOUGH THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS MAY SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED TO
START THE PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
THOUGH AXN MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE AN EARLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN EAU THIS
MORNING, THOUGH THE LATEST TREND IS LOOKING DRIER FOR THEM. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE TIED TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM WESTERN MN THIS MORNING TO WESTERN WI BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST SATURATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, SO
AXN, STC, AND EAU CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH
THIS ROUND. IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED AS ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL
BE LIGHT.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FOR THE WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WE MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TIED TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE SW/W.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND SE 15-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page