498
FXUS63 KMPX 081132
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES (40S & 50S) THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR 60 TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
AND WESTERN WI.
- SMALL SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
FAVORING WEST-CENTRAL WI FOR BOTH.
- A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.|
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH 30-40
KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN IOWA,
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH
THE HREF AND REFS MEAN WINDS PEAKING UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THAT
REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE GUSTS ARE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND
ADVISORY, WE LEVERAGED THE PRODUCT TO GIVE FOLKS WHO MAY BE
TRAVELING ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR A HEADS UP. WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, TODAY WILL FEATURE A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FIRST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI,
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST, KEEPING PRECIP AMOUNTS TO A HUNDREDTH
OR LESS EVEN FOR RUSK, CHIPPEWA, AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
TREK EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN, PRODUCING ITS OWN ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN. AGAIN, IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY FOR
OUR AREA, WITH ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEING CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BETTER DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AS THE LINE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ACROSS WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN STILL, QPF HAS TRENDED
DOWN TO AROUND 0.05" OR LESS EVEN FOR AREAS LIKE EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH IN WEST-CENTRAL WI. SO... DESPITE THE TWO CHANCES FOR
RAIN TODAY, AMOUNTS ARE HARDLY ENOUGH TO ALTER PLANS AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, KEEPING HIGHS
A BIT COOLER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT SAID, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY, WE'LL BE LOOKING
AT A PRETTY SOLID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMING AMPLIFIED THIS WEEKEND, WITH TROUGHING TO WEST AND
RIDGING TO THE EAST. A CORRIDOR OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARDS IN BETWEEN, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THERE'S AN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SMALLER DETAILS, THOUGH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FAVORS A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN LASTING INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
AN HOUR OR TWO OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH SHIFTING WINDS FROM 180-200 INITIALLY MOVING TOWARDS
250-280 AFTER 21Z, WITH SPEEDS PEAKING AT 15-20G30KTS FROM
15-21Z. A LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS NOW EXPECTED, MAINLY INTERMITTENT MVFR AMIDST MAINLY
LOW VFR CIGS. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT,
BECOMING VFR AT ALL SITES THAT MANAGED TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF PRECIP ENDING.
KMSP...ADDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS DUE TO WEAKER WINDS AT
GROUND LEVEL RELATIVE TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE, WITH SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING SUCH THAT THE LLWS DIMINISHES BY 14-15Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT AROUND
30KTS. SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WEAKEN AFTER 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
SAT...VFR, BCMG MVFR/-SHRA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH
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