333
FXUS63 KMPX 090534
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES (40S & 50S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- SMALL SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING, FAVORING WEST-CENTRAL
WI.
- A WARM, HUMID, AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
LOOKS TO BE A TAD ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ADVERTISE 20-30 MPH GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF 40 MPH
WIN GUST REPORTS IN SOUTHERN MN. ONGOING BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THOSE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY IN WESTERN WI, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S, WHEREAS ACROSS WESTERN MN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WE ARE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN
THE VERY NEAR-TERM. THIS FRONT HAS FEATURED SOME RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SURFACE
DRY IS AIR IS LIMITING DROPLETS FROM REACHING THE GROUND IN
CURRENT TIME. RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI, THEREFORE HAVE HUNG ONTO THE RAIN SHOWER
POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS UNTIL THIS EVENING. FOR ANY RAINFALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TOMORROW'S FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
(IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS COMPARED TO TODAY. SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN
HOWEVER CLOUDS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE TRAILING
THIS PARENT LOW GENERATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT BUT DID
WARRANT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST TO FEATURE 20-30% POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CASE, HAVE THE UMBRELLA
ACCESSIBLE LIKELY ARE NOT GOING TO NEED TO USE IT. ONCE THIS
WAVE CLEARS THURSDAY NIGHT, MORE PREVALENT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL GIVEN NW'LY FLOW BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID-50S FOR MOST.
THIS WEEKEND FEATURES THE START OF A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT TO A
WARM, HUMID, AND POTENTIALLY STORMY ONE LASTING INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ADVECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S ONCE
AGAIN WHILE SUNDAY COULD BE OUR FIRST SOUPIER FEELING DAY AS DEW
POINTS REACH THE LOW 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. AS FOR PRECIP, THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS THE QPF
FOOTPRINT HAS INCREASED IN SPATIAL COVERAGE FOR THOSE SEEING
GREATER THAN 0.5" OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY THOSE ACROSS EASTERN MN
INTO WESTERN WI.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
THE SWIRL OF LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR STRATUS IS SLOWING MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH STEMMING FROM A SYSTEM ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA,
WITH THE SOUTHERN END SCATTERING OUT SLOWLY BUT LIKELY STILL
REACHING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE BLUSTERY TO START WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 25KTS,
HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF WITH GUSTS NOT APPEARING AGAIN WITHIN
THE PERIOD. A LINE OF -SHRA IS POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY 20Z IN
WESTERN MN TO 01Z IN WESTERN WI, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY ENOUGH THAT EVEN PROB30 GROUPS MAY BE OVERDOING IT AT
THIS POINT. KEPT THE TAF A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MAINLY LOW
VFR AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH MVFR IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT SEE THE PASSING SHOWERS.
KMSP...THE MAIN TWO CONCERNS ARE THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 08-09Z,
FOLLOWED BY THE LINE OF -SHRA FROM 21-00Z. RIGHT NOW OMITTED THE
INCLUSION OF A PROB30 AS COVERAGE OF THE -SHRA IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, AND EVEN THOSE THAT SEE SHOWERS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 6SM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
SAT...VFR, BCMG MVFR/-SHRA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH
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