121
FXUS63 KMPX 091118
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AT
MOST.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW, TURNING WET SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A SWATH OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING STEMMING FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT BEING THE
PRIMARY CAUSE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN GRADUAL
CLEARING/FRACTURING OF THE CLOUD DECK ON THE SOUTHERN END SUCH THAT
WE MAY END UP SEEING ONLY HALF SKY COVERAGE BY SUNRISE. THE LAST OF
THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE PUSHED THROUGH ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL, WITH A
FEW LINGERING 20MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI THROUGH SUNRISE
BEFORE WINDS CALM FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
RIDES THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK TROUGH INTO THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY, WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK INTRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR/RAP SHOW OMEGA THAT IS LIKELY FAR
TOO HIGH, AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE PRODUCING AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHOWERS SLIDE THROUGH. THE RRFS
MEANWHILE HAS MUCH WEAKER OMEGA WHICH FAILS TO FULLY SATURATE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, LEADING TO WEAKER PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHICH SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE THE WEAK FORCING
COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MEANS IT WILL BE FEAST OR
FAMINE IN REGARDS TO RAIN WITH THIS ROUND MOVING THROUGH, WITH THE
SHOWERS MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. SOME OF THE
EARLIER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 00Z HRRR EVEN TRIED TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER DESPITE BEING SHALLOW THERE IS ENOUGH
WARM AIR NEAR THE GROUND TO KEEP ANYTHING FROM ACCUMULATING.
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, ON THE ORDER OF LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS AS OPPOSED TO
60S, HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS POINT IN APRIL. THE ARRIVAL
OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW DAYS OF FREQUENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY MORNING ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AS BROAD
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE PRODUCED BY THE DEPARTING COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS EARLY AS SUNRISE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
PRODUCE UP TO 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, HOWEVER ASIDE FROM SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WE
MORE THAN LIKELY ESCAPE ANYTHING ASIDE FROM THE RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE HEAVIEST HOURLY RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO ARRIVE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY BEFORE SUNRISE AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
THE MID LEVELS COMBINES WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF LIFT,
WITH MOISTURE ALSO STREAMING NORTHWARDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO STALL TOWARDS MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, PRODUCING FURTHER PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY AS SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW STALLS,
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY PRODUCING
LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA, WITH
FURTHER ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THANKS TO THE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND SOME 80S POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. SOME GUIDANCE IS
PRODUCING A WINTRY MIX ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY THE CFS/GFS WHICH PRODUCE SOME COLDER AIR FROM 925-700MB,
WITH THE ECMWF MUCH WARMER KEEPING THINGS AS ONLY RAIN. FOR NOW, THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE REGION, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO DEVIATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT FORECAST FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
THE DECK OF LOW VFR STRATUS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING
AND DESPITE CAM GUIDANCE TRYING TO DISSIPATE IT ROUTINELY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IT HAS YET TO BUDGE, SO WENT MORE
PESSIMISTIC FOR CIGS AND KEPT THEM AROUND UNTIL POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION STARTS LATER TODAY. IN GENERAL, LOW VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR FROM ROUGHLY 22-05Z AS THE LINE OF
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH, WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS BELOW 6SM NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT DOES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DWINDLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, INITIALLY AT OR JUST ABOVE
10KTS DROPPING BELOW 10KTS BEFORE 18Z, AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
KMSP...ELECTED TO ADD A PROB30 GROUP FOR -SHRA, WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS BELOW 6SM SEEMING UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
AND ABSENCE OF ANY -TSRA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE A DROP
TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 020-030 FROM 00-04Z WHILE THE LINE PASSES
THROUGH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA, CHANCE IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA, LIKELY IFR AT TIMES. WIND S 15-20G30KTS.
MON...MVFR/-SHRA. WIND W TO E 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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