449
FXUS63 KMPX 100539
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1239 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
BECOMING SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.
- QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
- COOL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN NOTICEABLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SURFACE LOW ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
OVER MI/IL AND INTO MO/KS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. ALOFT, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH
MANITOBA PROVINCE AND THE DAKOTAS INTO THE PLAINS. DEEP RIDGING
IS WELL UPSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH INTO WESTERN CANADA WHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SPIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURES IN AND NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST ARE
FAIRLY BENIGN TODAY, MAINLY A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDING ESE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
INCREASING LIFT NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THESE COINCIDING ELEMENTS MAY WELL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH
NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BE REALIZED AT THE
SURFACE, SO ANY QPF WILL BE EXPECTEDLY LIGHT, ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. IN ADDITION, SHOULD SUFFICIENT
WET-BULBING OCCUR INTO THE EVENING, SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
COULD FALL AS BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
50S FOR THE ENTIRE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST ON SATURDAY, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NW-SE ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE PACNW TO THE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST FRI INTO SAT, BRINGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
APPRECIABLE LIFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. WHILE THIS RIDGE MOVES
EAST, A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST
OUT OF ONE OF THE PACIFIC LOWS, MAKING FOR INCREASED JETTING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD INCREASE IN
POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. QPFS ARE LOOKING TO BE 0.25"-0.50" FOR
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN, INCREASING TO 0.50"-1.00" FOR
EASTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI. NOT LOOKING FOR A SEVERE WX
THREAT AS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT,
WHICH WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW THEN LOOKS TO WOBBLE OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY-TUESDAY WHILE THE VERY DEEP WESTERN NOAM LONGWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SURGES OF VORTICITY
STILL LOOK EVIDENT TO RIDE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS THAT WILL JUMP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY, AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
WHILE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. THIS ROUND WILL BE AIDED BY A PASSING COLD FRONT AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL JETTING. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR A FEW STRONG-TO-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHERN MN. CIPS ANALOGS AND CSU ML GUIDANCE HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL, BUT GIVEN THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
POSITIONS, IT MAKES SENSE THAT MONDAY IS THE BETTER DAY FOR OUR
COVERAGE AREA.
THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT STILL SUBJECT
TO MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL WAVES ALOFT AND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES
THROUGH MIDWEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES NOW LOOK WARM ENOUGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK TO AVOID ANY ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MVFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN AND WI TO START THE PERIOD.
EXPECTING EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
CLEARING DURING FRIDAY MORNING. HOW QUICKLY CIGS IMPROVE TONIGHT
IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SO I OPTED FOR A SEMI-OPTIMISTIC APPROACH.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FOR MOST
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING CENTRAL MN
WHERE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY DURING FRIDAY. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
KMSP... I OPTED TO REMOVE THE TEMPO WITH MVFR CIGS. OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOW VFR CIGS THAT'LL SCATTER OUT BY SUNRISE.
MODEL GUIDANCE WASN'T OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT MVFR CIGS EITHER.
CIGS SCATTER BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY AM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA, CHANCE IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-TSRA, LIKELY IFR AT TIMES. WIND S 15-20G30KTS.
MON...MVFR/-TSRA. WIND NW TO E 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BPH
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