997
FXUS63 KMPX 101141
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- COOL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF FOG HAVE FORMED OVER WESTERN MN FOLLOWING THE CLEARING, AND
SOME OF IT MAY BUILD EAST WITH THE CLEARING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AND MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKING IN IN
EARNEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN IT. A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON, WHICH DESPITE THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR, BUT A
MOIST INVERSION AROUND 850 MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL WORK NORTH AND TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
TOWARD SUNRISE SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 60. THE SHORTWAVE/LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY.
THE LLJ WILL VEER EAST AND SHOULD TAKE MUCH OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH IT, BUT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN
ACROSS WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FARTHER WEST, A DRY SLOT WILL
WORK EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY. 925 MB TEMPS OF +22 TO +24C
SIGNAL HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE STALLING
FRONT, OR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DRY SLOT, COULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG OR JUST EAST EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER, FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. ALSO, AREAS WEST OF THE
FRONT SHOULD MIX OUT AND LEAVE LITTLE CAPE, WHILE AREAS EAST
WILL REMAIN MOIST, BUT LIKELY CAPPED FROM REDUCED SURFACE
HEATING. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN REMAIN WHERE CAPPING IS LESS
OF AN ISSUE - LIKELY ALONG I-35.
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN
8C/KM WILL OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE MONDAY WITH MUCAPE
POTENTIALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT, AND AN
INCREASING 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS IOWA LATER IN THE DAY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH DEPENDING HOW WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER GETS. ENOUGH WIND SHEAR EXISTS TO ORGANIZE
STORMS, BUT THE SEVERE RISK IS CONSIDERED CONDITIONAL AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARBY WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR
IOWA LATE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SINK WELL SOUTH MIDWEEK, BUT
UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THURSDAY WITH
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO END
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MN
OVERNIGHT, BUT AREN'T IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THE
CURRENT TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE IT MAY MOVE BACK INTO AXN
BRIEFLY BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT,
THEN INCREASE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
KMSP...BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
WEST METRO AND SHOULD CLEAR MSP AROUND 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING,
THEN SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SHRA, CHANCE IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SUN...MVFR/-TSRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND S 15-20G30KTS.
MON...VFR EARLY, THEN CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND LGT/VARIABLE TO E
5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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