031
FXUS63 KMPX 232335
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. WIND IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR BOTH HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN
MINNESOTA TOMORROW DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A COOL SPRING
RAIN SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
OUR SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER HAS YET TO EVEN BEGIN TO ERODE OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EVIDENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE AS BUBBLING CUMULUS HOVERS NEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS THE AREA
TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TO OCCUR IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE LACK OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SCENARIO WHERE A BIT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER PULSE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD
COVER, ALREADY EVIDENT BY BILLOWING ANVIL CLOUDS STEMMING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS FORM, STORM STRENGTH
WILL BE VARIED BASED ON LOCATION AND PROXIMITY TO OTHER CELLS AS
THEY COMPETE FOR THE SAME ENVIRONMENT, WITH CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS
THAN IDEAL OVERALL. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING INTO
MSP AIRPORT SHOW A SOLID 150-175 J/KG OF CIN OVER THE METRO THANKS
TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH MUCAPE ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WITH A LONG
'SKINNY' PROFILE OF CAPE ABOVE THE CAP. THE SHEAR PROFILE IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER WITH THE ONLY DIRECTIONAL VEERING BELOW 900MB
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALOFT, RESULTING IN A FLAT UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILE THAT FROM A CONCEPTUAL MODEL STANDPOINT WOULD FAVOR
MULTICELLS INTO UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH AS OPPOSED TO STRONGER
INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR SUPERCELLS. GOING THROUGH ALL THE POTENTIAL
THREATS, THE TORNADO THREAT IS ISOLATED TO STORM BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WITH THE FIRST CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT POP UP, WITH ANY
THAT DO MANAGE TO SPIN UP LOOKING TO SHEAR OUT QUICKLY AND REMAIN ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. A SECONDARY TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST INTO THE
EVENING AS THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE COULD HAVE A FEW LOCALIZED
NOTCHES PROMOTING A BRIEF CIRCULATION, BUT ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE WITH THE LACK OF SHEAR KEEPING US FROM SEEING LONGER TRACK
STRONGER STORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR ON THE ORDER OF 5
DEGREES PER KM FROM 0-3KM IMPROVING TO 8 DEGREE PER KM FROM 3-6KM,
MEANING ELEVATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT GENERALLY A MORE ISOLATED AND
LOWER END THREAT. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH OUR CONVECTION TODAY ESPECIALLY AS THE INITIAL STORMS FORM INTO
A LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE PROMOTED BY THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND PERSISTENT BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LASTLY, THERE
IS AN ISOLATED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT MAINLY IN WESTERN WI WHERE
PWATS ARE A BIT HIGHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STORMS LATER
INTO THE EVENING ARE PRESENT, HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR MORE IMPACTFUL
FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...
BEHIND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION, WE MAINTAIN MUCH
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO NOT ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO
MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS COUPLED WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS STEMMING FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE NEARBY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN SPORADIC RED FLAG CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH LOOK TO DIMINISH AFTER 7PM AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SIMPLE COMPARISON OF MADISON MN IN LAC QUI
PARLE COUNTY WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT 75 OVER A 45 DEGREE DEW
POINT COMPARED TO BUFFALO MN IN WRIGHT COUNTY AT 68 DEGREES OVER 60
DEGREE DEW POINTS SHOWS THE STARK DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE CONTENT
OVER JUST HALF THE STATE. WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING TOO FAR EAST TO ACCUMULATE MUCH, ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW OVER THE SAME REGION OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA AS RH ONCE AGAIN BOTTOMS OUT INTO THE 20S THANKS TO
DROPPING DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN TOMORROW AND TODAY IS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND TOMORROW,
MEANING CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT NOT QUITE THE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THAT ARE BEING OBSERVED TODAY. REGARDLESS, ANYONE
PLANNING ON BURNING TOMORROW SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE LOCAL
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY WHEN WINDS ARE A BIT
STRONGER.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, GIVING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARDS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SURFACE LOW, HOWEVER THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL REINFORCEMENT WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKER SYSTEM
WHICH HAS A LOWER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. INSTEAD, OUR REGION
LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
RESULTING IN A COOLER SHOWERY SOAKING RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OUT OF
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. WHILE TODAY'S CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SPOTTY IN TERMS OF QPF COVERAGE, THE LONG
DURATION RELATIVELY SUSTAINED RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE OF THE AREA SEEING HIGHER OVERALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ACROSS MUCH OF THE MPX CWA FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES THE AREAS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA THAT HAVE LARGELY BEEN MISSED BY THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
SO FAR THIS SEASON, HOWEVER THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED A
BIT FARTHER EAST SPANNING NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL IOWA. AFTER
PRECIPITATION WRAPS UP TUESDAY MORNING, WE LOOK TO ENTER A
RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER AS AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND
PAC NW RIDGE SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET FARTHER SOUTH, KEEPING
ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEMS FROM MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE US ANY
CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS IS LIKELY A WELCOME BREAK FOR AREAS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
FLOODING, HOWEVER AREAS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA MAY STILL BE ASKING FOR
MORE RAINFALL ONCE WE HEAD INTO MAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED DOWN, BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MN, EVENTUALLY REACHING WI. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING EAST OF I-35.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS ACROSS WESTERN MN.
KMSP...TS ARE WEAKENING TO THE SOUTH, BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING
NORTH TOWARD THE TERMINAL. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS BECOMING S.
SUN...VFR, CHC PM MVFR/-SHRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHIPPEWA-
DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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