667
FXUS63 KMPX 250540
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN
THIS WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY.
- A WET START TO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE LOW THAT BROUGHT IN THE COOLER AIR AFTER YESTERDAY'S RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW
WILL REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AND AS IT SPINS
THERE WILL BE A FEW ROUNDS OF VORTICITY THAT COULD DRIVE SOME
VERTICAL ASCENT RELATED TO THE PVA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, SO MORE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RATHER THAN YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THERE IS
NOT MUCH INSTABILITY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM UP PAST SEASONABLE
NORMALS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH SO STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED HERE.
AS THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC DRIVER FOR OUR NEXT MAIN
SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE ABLE TO
DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE TO PROVIDE FOR AMPLE RAIN CHANCES. BASED
ON CURRENT TRACKS WITHIN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE CENTER WILL PASS THROUGH IOWA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS MEAN TRACK KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE LOW. ON THIS COOLER SIDE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE THE FORECAST.
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THIS LOW AND SOUTH OF THE LOW, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER AND ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT IN
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SOUTH OF THE LOW SUCH THAT SPC ALREADY HAS
A DAY 4 OUTLOOK OUT WHICH IN INCLUDES THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF
MINNESOTA. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHAT IMPACTS OCCUR MONDAY. AS A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP ALL OF US IN THE COOLER RAIN, BUT A SHIFT TO THE NORTH
EVEN SLIGHTLY COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CANADA WITH ONLY A
CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. AS IS COMMON FOR LOWS LIKE
THIS THERE WILL BE AMPLE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S. THERE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FROST CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. SO IF YOU GOT AN EARLY START TO YOUR GROWING SEASON,
WATCH OUT FOR THIS COLD AIR NEXT WEEK. CURRENT GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THIS COLDER AIRMASS PRESENT THOUGHT
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE FLOW DOESN'T START TO SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE COLD AIR UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SO EXPECT A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED -SHRA MENTIONS IN
THIS TAF SET FOR KAXN, KRWF, AND KSTC WITH RAIN ALREADY MOVING
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY SO OPTED TO GO WITH MORE PROB30 THAN PREVAILING
MENTIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS WITH
DIRECTION VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
KMSP...OPTED TO KEEP -SHRA WEST OF KMSP AGAIN FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD, BUT WILL REASSESS WITH THE 09Z AMD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, BCMG MVFR/-SHRA. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND E 10-15G25KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...DYE
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