840
FXUS63 KMPX 251743
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1243 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/ CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY ONWARD WITH SOME NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN IS CUTTING ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS PRECIP IS STILL FIGHTING THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR AS IS MOVES INTO MINNESOTA BASED ON SURFACE OBS. AS THE
LAYER MOISTENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EXPECTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UP INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS AND QPF QUITE A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR TODAY WITH A SHORT
BREAK THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN ARRIVES. QPF TOTALS
DURING THE DAY TODAY ARE GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH, CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. RAIN CHANCES
RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AMPLE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
1.5" THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STILL SEEM REASONABLE, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE WISE, IT'S THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS THAT
WILL POSE A THREAT TO ANY SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION AS TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME. WE'LL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE A MOSTLY
VFR, NUISANCE LIGHT RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MN. MONDAY
MORNING, RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THIS SAME
REGION AND EXTENDING EAST TO MKT/MSP/RNH. TO GO WITH THE MVFR
CIGS, HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SHOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AS WELL. THOUGH, LIKE TODAY, ANY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE OF THE NUISANCE VARIETY.
KMSP...PRETTY BLAH WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF
TONIGHT. WHERE THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN IS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10Z
AND 18Z SUNDAY. THIS IS WHEN RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE BACK TO VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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