077
FXUS63 KMPX 252321
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY ONWARD WITH SOME NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPIT-AND-SPUTTERY WITH
AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW STEMMING FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WEAK IMPULSES TO PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN MN WILL BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A BAND OF SHOWERS FOCUSES MORE INTO CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN MN THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP. SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST OVER WESTERN MN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER GIVEN THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THESE COULD UNDERACHIEVE, DEPENDING IF RAIN
OCCURS. HOWEVER, FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY, WE HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. LOWER 70S COULD RESULT IF SUNNIER SKIES
OCCUR.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRAVELS NORTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE CAUSING A
STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RAIN WILL GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR BELT AS A SURFACE CYCLONE MATURES. RAIN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH BREAKS IN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS LOOK POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AS THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
MN AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT. BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 35-45 KNOTS SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, ONE OR
TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT EVOLVES BUT
A SEVERE STORM DOES OCCUR, MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. THE CYCLONE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES DURING MONDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING ANY TRAILING RAIN WITH IT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD WIDESPREAD SOAKER WITH GENERALLY 1-1.5" OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
THERE IS LESSER CONFIDENCE OF AREAL CONTINUITY FOR THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN MN (WHERE THE BREAKS IN THE
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE). BUT, LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THIS REGION COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE MORE RAINFALL (UP TO 2") IF ONE OR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH.
TUESDAY ONWARD, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND
DRY ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AFTER WEDNESDAY AS
TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S)
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY ACTUALLY
COME INTO PLAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS COOLER AIR
FUNNELS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL MN AND
NORTHWESTERN WI.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WE HAVE SEEN SOME LOWER CEILINGS WITH THESE SHOWERS,
BUT MOST HAVE REMAINED VFR. THIS EVENING WILL SEE MORE OF A RWF
TO STC AXIS FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS, BUT IN THE EARLY MORNING IT
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A MKT TO MSP AXIS BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
THEN TOMORROW EVENING INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE MAIN EVENT FOR
RAIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FAIRLY VARIABLE UNTIL THE
BIGGER RAIN EVENT GETS CLOSER ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT WE WILL
SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE
ARE TWO WINDOWS FOR RAIN SHOWERS: SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ON
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY EVENING WILL LAST INTO MONDAY WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A CATEGORY REDUCTION
TO MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD, BUT SOME COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC
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