530
FXUS63 KMPX 261237
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
737 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY INTO MONDAY,
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA UP THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY END BY MID MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLY EVEN SEEING A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA SEEING 0.5 TO
1" FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, AND AROUND 0.2 TO
0.3" TO THE EAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS LOW MOVES INTO MINNESOTA WILL
DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SWODY2 HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS FAR AS ST. CLOUD
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. OF COURSE, HOW THE MORNING PRECIP PLAYS OUT WILL ALSO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY
CASE, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, BUT
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF AROUND 1" SEEM REASONABLE WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SEEING CLOSER TO 1.5 TO 1.75".
RAIN SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WE'LL SEE MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES
GET, WE WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT REVIVING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE UPWARD TREND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER
TODAY AND RAIN EVENTUALLY LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A SMALL PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT
KMKT AND KRWF BASED ON THE HREF 1HR THUNDER PROBABILITY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY, BUT THE REMAINING OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE
TOO LOW OF THUNDER CHANCES TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT THERE ARE SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS BCMG NW
10 KTS LATE.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JRB
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