314
FXUS63 KMPX 261709
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY AND MONDAY, RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS LOW SINCE THE RAIN
WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL HOURS.
- MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF
5) FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- LOOKING AHEAD, A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE
LOWS NEAR FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, AND THEN
SOME DEFORMATION PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. SINCE THIS IS FLATTER TERRAIN, AND
THE PAST WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY, THE RISK FOR FLOODING
IS VERY LOW.
MEANWHILE AREAS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SHOULD SEE AROUND
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. THE HREF PPM IS MUCH LOWER IN THIS
AREA, GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES, WHICH INDICATES LESSER
HIGH-END AMOUNTS. SO EVEN THOUGH WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAIN, THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS LOW HERE AS WELL.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, OUR AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND THIS IS TIED TO A HAIL THREAT.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT
THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE LACKING IN OUR AREA DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. FOR THESE
REASONS, ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD INDEED PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE HAIL, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
(GOLF BALL SIZE OR GREATER) IS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION,
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AT TIMES, BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK
AND INTO NEXT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER
TODAY AND RAIN EVENTUALLY LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A SMALL PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT
KMKT AND KRWF BASED ON THE HREF 1HR THUNDER PROBABILITY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY, BUT THE REMAINING OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE
TOO LOW OF THUNDER CHANCES TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT THERE ARE SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS BCMG NW
10 KTS LATE.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB
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