226
FXUS63 KMPX 261732
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY INTO MONDAY,
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA UP THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY END BY MID MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLY EVEN SEEING A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA SEEING 0.5 TO
1" FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, AND AROUND 0.2 TO
0.3" TO THE EAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS LOW MOVES INTO MINNESOTA WILL
DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SWODY2 HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS FAR AS ST. CLOUD
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. OF COURSE, HOW THE MORNING PRECIP PLAYS OUT WILL ALSO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY
CASE, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, BUT
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF AROUND 1" SEEM REASONABLE WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SEEING CLOSER TO 1.5 TO 1.75".
RAIN SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WE'LL SEE MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES
GET, WE WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT REVIVING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE UPWARD TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON, PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH LIFT ALONG A
THERMAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT VFR TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE
TO AT LEAST IFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIFR IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH STRATIFORM RAIN OR BROKEN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING FOR MUCH FOR THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
DURING TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-4SM. OVER
SOUTHERN MN MONDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE SO NOT AS CONFIDENT IN PERSISTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES.
BUT, CAMS DO HINT AT A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR RWF AND MKT WITHIN THE BREAK IN PRECIP SO HAVE ADDED
PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. SUSTAINED VALUES WILL BE
10-15 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE TURNING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. -SHRA SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND 03Z TONIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE STEADY FROM MIDNIGHT
TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR DURING THIS TIME.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN BEING CONTINUOUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS CAMS SHOW MORE SCATTERED -SHRA. ADDED A PROB30 MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS BCMG NW
10 KTS LATE.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG
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