673
FXUS63 KMPX 262340
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA UP THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH AND WILL GRADUALLY END BY MID MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN POSSIBLY EVEN SEEING A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. INCREASING WAA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THIS EVENING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA SEEING 0.5 TO
1" FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, AND AROUND 0.2 TO
0.3" TO THE EAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS LOW MOVES INTO MINNESOTA WILL
DETERMINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SWODY2 HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS FAR AS ST. CLOUD
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. OF COURSE, HOW THE MORNING PRECIP PLAYS OUT WILL ALSO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY
CASE, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, BUT
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF AROUND 1" SEEM REASONABLE WITH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SEEING CLOSER TO 1.5 TO 1.75".
RAIN SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WE'LL SEE MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES
GET, WE WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT REVIVING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE UPWARD TREND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL DETERIORATE OVER
TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FILL IN
AND CIGS/VIS DROP. CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE RAIN SPREADS AND
INTENSIFIES. LIFR IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN
MONDAY MORNING AT AXN, RWF, AND STC. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
OR BROKEN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING FOR MUCH FOR THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-4SM,
POTENTIALLY LOWER AT AXN AND RWF. OVER SOUTHERN MN MONDAY
MORNING, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN PERSISTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES. BUT, CAMS DO HINT AT
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR RWF AND MKT
WITHIN THE BREAK IN PRECIP SO HAVE ADDED TEMPOS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT OVERNIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. SUSTAINED
VALUES WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 20-25 KNOTS. JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
KMSP...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 8PM TONIGHT
WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE STEADY FROM 11PM THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
RAIN CHANCES BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR BEGINNING AROUND 7AM MONDAY. WS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ADDED THIS TO THE TAF FROM 3-7AM, THOUGH IT COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS BEYOND THIS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN BEING CONTINUOUS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS CAMS SHOW MORE SCATTERED -SHRA. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY -TSRA IS A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 6-9AM AND AGAIN FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS BCMG NW
10 KTS LATE.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...PV
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