457
FXUS63 KMPX 270053
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
753 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY AND MONDAY, RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS LOW SINCE THE RAIN
WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL HOURS.
- MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF
5) FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- LOOKING AHEAD, A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE
LOWS NEAR FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, AND THEN
SOME DEFORMATION PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. SINCE THIS IS FLATTER TERRAIN, AND
THE PAST WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY, THE RISK FOR FLOODING
IS VERY LOW.
MEANWHILE AREAS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SHOULD SEE AROUND
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. THE HREF PPM IS MUCH LOWER IN THIS
AREA, GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES, WHICH INDICATES LESSER
HIGH-END AMOUNTS. SO EVEN THOUGH WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAIN, THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS LOW HERE AS WELL.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, OUR AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND THIS IS TIED TO A HAIL THREAT.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT
THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE LACKING IN OUR AREA DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. FOR THESE
REASONS, ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD INDEED PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE HAIL, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
(GOLF BALL SIZE OR GREATER) IS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION,
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AT TIMES, BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK
AND INTO NEXT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL DETERIORATE OVER
TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS FILL IN
AND CIGS/VIS DROP. CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE RAIN SPREADS AND
INTENSIFIES. LIFR IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN
MONDAY MORNING AT AXN, RWF, AND STC. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
OR BROKEN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LASTING FOR MUCH FOR THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RATES OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-4SM,
POTENTIALLY LOWER AT AXN AND RWF. OVER SOUTHERN MN MONDAY
MORNING, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN PERSISTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES. BUT, CAMS DO HINT AT
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR RWF AND MKT
WITHIN THE BREAK IN PRECIP SO HAVE ADDED TEMPOS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT OVERNIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. SUSTAINED
VALUES WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 20-25 KNOTS. JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
KMSP...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 8PM TONIGHT
WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE STEADY FROM 11PM THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
RAIN CHANCES BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR BEGINNING AROUND 7AM MONDAY. WS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ADDED THIS TO THE TAF FROM 3-7AM, THOUGH IT COULD LAST A FEW
HOURS BEYOND THIS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN BEING CONTINUOUS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS CAMS SHOW MORE SCATTERED -SHRA. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY -TSRA IS A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 6-9AM AND AGAIN FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS BCMG NW
10 KTS LATE.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...PV
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