418
FXUS63 KMPX 270617
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY AND MONDAY, RAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS LOW SINCE THE RAIN
WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL HOURS.
- MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF
5) FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- LOOKING AHEAD, A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE
LOWS NEAR FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, AND THEN
SOME DEFORMATION PRECIP AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE. SINCE THIS IS FLATTER TERRAIN, AND
THE PAST WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY, THE RISK FOR FLOODING
IS VERY LOW.
MEANWHILE AREAS IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SHOULD SEE AROUND
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. THE HREF PPM IS MUCH LOWER IN THIS
AREA, GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES, WHICH INDICATES LESSER
HIGH-END AMOUNTS. SO EVEN THOUGH WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAIN, THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS LOW HERE AS WELL.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, OUR AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND THIS IS TIED TO A HAIL THREAT.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT
THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE LACKING IN OUR AREA DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. FOR THESE
REASONS, ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD INDEED PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE HAIL, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
(GOLF BALL SIZE OR GREATER) IS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION,
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AT TIMES, BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK
AND INTO NEXT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. AT
THE MOMENT, ONLY ONE TERMINAL (KRWF) IS IFR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM. RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDER CHANCES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERN
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN IOWA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. FIRST ROUND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN IS APPROACHING NOW, THEN IT SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15G20KTS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR EARLY, BCMG VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...DYE
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