973
FXUS63 KMPX 270855
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
355 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA ARE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 0.75" SO FAR WITH A FEW
LOCALES REPORTING AROUND 1". RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO 0.25"
FURTHER EAST WITH WISCONSIN LARGELY MISSING OUT ON THIS EARLY
MORNING PRECIP. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE
SUNRISE UNTIL MORE FILLS IN AS THE SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR THE SD/IA/MN BORDER) CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WITH PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING,
BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A
MARGINAL MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR A HAIL THREAT. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEER BUT SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN THIS
AREA, SO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE STORM CHANCES FOR OUR CWA.
ALSO OF NOTE, A FEW MODELS SHOW THIS TURNING INTO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN EVENT LIKE WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING BY
MID AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO NORTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO QPF AND STUCK
WITH AN NBM/WPC BLEND.
ONCE THE RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING, WE LOOK TO BE DRY FOR
QUITE A WHILE. THERE'S A FEW MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WITH A FEW WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL BE
REALLY LACKING IN THE MOISTURE DEPARTMENT. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, IT
WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND MORNING
LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BREAK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR
70, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. AT
THE MOMENT, ONLY ONE TERMINAL (KRWF) IS IFR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE FOR NOW. EXPECTING LOWER CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM. RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDER CHANCES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERN
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN IOWA/WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF. FIRST ROUND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN IS APPROACHING NOW, THEN IT SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15G20KTS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR EARLY, BCMG VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...DYE
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