661
FXUS63 KMPX 271726
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1226 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA ARE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 0.75" SO FAR WITH A FEW
LOCALES REPORTING AROUND 1". RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO 0.25"
FURTHER EAST WITH WISCONSIN LARGELY MISSING OUT ON THIS EARLY
MORNING PRECIP. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE
SUNRISE UNTIL MORE FILLS IN AS THE SURFACE LOW (CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR THE SD/IA/MN BORDER) CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WITH PLENTY OF
LIGHTNING. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING,
BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A
MARGINAL MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR A HAIL THREAT. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEER BUT SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN THIS
AREA, SO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE STORM CHANCES FOR OUR CWA.
ALSO OF NOTE, A FEW MODELS SHOW THIS TURNING INTO A MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN EVENT LIKE WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING BY
MID AFTERNOON FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO NORTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO QPF AND STUCK
WITH AN NBM/WPC BLEND.
ONCE THE RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING, WE LOOK TO BE DRY FOR
QUITE A WHILE. THERE'S A FEW MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WITH A FEW WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL BE
REALLY LACKING IN THE MOISTURE DEPARTMENT. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, IT
WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND MORNING
LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BREAK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR
70, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
ONGOING -SHRA SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WITH OUR WINDOW FOR -TSRA
CLOSING RAPIDLY. GENERALLY DECREASED THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
MENTION OF -TSRA FROM TEMPOS TO PROB30S AS THE LACK OF T SO FAR
IN OUR SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MEANS WE ARE LESS
LIKELY TO SEE IT FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS. EAU HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING -TSRA MOVE THROUGH AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH AFTER 21Z. GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/MVFR WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS SEEING INTERMITTENT LIFR AMIDST THE STRONGER SHOWERS,
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AS -SHRA LEAVES THE
REGION AFTER 00Z. BY 10-13Z, ALL SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MAINLY
FEW250 AS SKIES CLEAR RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
DUE TO CRASHING DEW POINTS. WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT,
INITIALLY 070-100 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT AROUND 10KTS
SHIFTING TOWARDS 280-320 BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY INCREASE TO
15G25KTS. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 12Z BUT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT GUSTY WITH AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS TO 20-23KTS.
KMSP...REDUCED THE TEMPO TO A PROB30 FOR -TSRA BUT WAS
CONSIDERING REMOVING IT ENTIRELY. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
REDWOOD FALLS/MANKATO WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS MSP, AND
IF THIS CLUSTER FAILS TO PRODUCE ANY THUNDER WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY FOR THE EVENT. OTHERWISE, WE REMAIN MVFR WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING AFTER 06Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...TDH
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