939
FXUS63 KMPX 271818
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW MORNINGS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF OUR MN COUNTIES HAVE SEEN AT LEAST 0.5" OF
RAIN SO FAR, WITH SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MN RECEIVING GENERALLY OVER AN
INCH. ST. JAMES HAS CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORT AT 2.2".
THIS ACTIVITY STEMS FROM A MATURING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN IA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEAST, LIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND A WARM FRONT IN TANDEM. CAMS SHOW RAIN
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE SOUTHEASTERN MN SHOULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
IA AND THESE CLEARER SKIES WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM WITHIN THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE SWEEPING
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN TRAVEL NORTHEAST THROUGH
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL WI BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE-WISE, THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRETTY LACK-LUSTER. CAPE WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER
OF ABOUT 500 J/KG WITH WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 25-35 KNOTS. LAPSE
RATES ALSO LOOK VERY POOR/MOIST ADIABATIC, SO ODDS OF A DAMAGING
WIND GUST OR A LARGE HAILSTONE ARE VERY LOW.
RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER 0.25" OF
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH EASTERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 0.5-0.75". LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THIS REGION
COULD APPROACH 1" IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN OCCUR. AS WE DRY OUT
TONIGHT, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DRAG COOLER AIR FOLLOWING
THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOWS TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WILL ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET
PRECIPITATION-WISE. WE SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH FAVORS COOLER AND MOSTLY DRIER
AIR. DID ADD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER AND NEAR EAU WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WHILE LOWS ARE IN THE 30S. GIVEN VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP, FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SOON AS
AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA FLIRTS WITH THE FREEZING
MARK EACH NIGHT. A WARM UP DOESN'T LOOK POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND
WHEN WAA OCCURS AHEAD OF SOME SOUTHWARD DIVING SHORTWAVES. BUT DON'T
EXPECT ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES SOON AS LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING PRETTY BLOCKED AND STAGNANT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
ONGOING -SHRA SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WITH OUR WINDOW FOR -TSRA
CLOSING RAPIDLY. GENERALLY DECREASED THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
MENTION OF -TSRA FROM TEMPOS TO PROB30S AS THE LACK OF T SO FAR
IN OUR SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MEANS WE ARE LESS
LIKELY TO SEE IT FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS. EAU HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING -TSRA MOVE THROUGH AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH AFTER 21Z. GENERALLY A MIX OF IFR/MVFR WITH A COUPLE
LOCATIONS SEEING INTERMITTENT LIFR AMIDST THE STRONGER SHOWERS,
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AS -SHRA LEAVES THE
REGION AFTER 00Z. BY 10-13Z, ALL SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MAINLY
FEW250 AS SKIES CLEAR RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
DUE TO CRASHING DEW POINTS. WINDS REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT,
INITIALLY 070-100 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT AROUND 10KTS
SHIFTING TOWARDS 280-320 BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY INCREASE TO
15G25KTS. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 12Z BUT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT GUSTY WITH AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS TO 20-23KTS.
KMSP...REDUCED THE TEMPO TO A PROB30 FOR -TSRA BUT WAS
CONSIDERING REMOVING IT ENTIRELY. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS BETWEEN
REDWOOD FALLS/MANKATO WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS MSP, AND
IF THIS CLUSTER FAILS TO PRODUCE ANY THUNDER WE WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY FOR THE EVENT. OTHERWISE, WE REMAIN MVFR WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING AFTER 06Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...TDH
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