462
FXUS63 KMPX 281134
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. MOST MORNINGS THIS WEEK WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AFTER A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FROM THE 26TH INTO THE 27TH, WE NOW SLIP
INTO A COOL AND DRIER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE
WAVE THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN ON MONDAY IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. TODAY, THIS WAVE WILL GET ABSORBED BY AN H5 LOW OVER
MANITOBA. FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, THIS SPRAWLING CANADIAN H5 LOW
WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO
QUEBEC. IT WILL STALL OUT OVER QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND, THEN START TO
RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARD NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
THE SOUTHERN JET BECOMING DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS, WITH THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. OUR POSITION TO THE
SOUTH OR WEST OF THE H5 LOW WILL PLACE US IN AN AREA OF
PREDOMINATELY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY COOL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN FACT, THE LATEST RUN
OF THE EPS WOULD FAVOR MSP NOT SEEING A HIGH OF 70 AGAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST 10 DAYS OF MAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY FALL INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME
SUB FREEZING LOWS LIKELY IN THERE AS WELL. LOOKING AT CLIMATOLOGY,
FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTH, THE MEDIAN DATE FOR
OUR LAST SPRING FREEZE COMES UP HERE IN THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL. UP
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI, THE MEDIAN DATE FOR THE LAST
SPRING FREEZE COMES OUT IN THE FIRST OR EVEN SECOND WEEK OF MAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, OUR GREEN UP FOR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI IS
RUNNING A GOOD 2 WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, WHICH MEANS WE WILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH FROST/FREEZE HAZARDS AS THIS EARLY START TO THE GROWING
SEASON MEETS A TYPICAL COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF APRIL.
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THEY ARE LOW, BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK
WEST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE THAT SCATTERED SHOWER
THREAT RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT, THE
STRONGEST WAVE LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH HERE ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED, SO IT WON'T BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER.
ALTHOUGH THE END OF APRIL INTO EARLY MAY OFTEN FEATURES THE
AWAKENING OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER SEASON, OUR CONVECTIVE WARNING
POLYGONS LOOK TO COLLECT DUST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 10 DAYS
OF MAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
OTHER THAN THE SLUGGISH DEPARTURE OF STRATUS OUT OF WESTERN WI,
CURRENT TAFS WERE TRACKING WILL. STRATUS COULD LINGER AT EAU TO
AS LATE AS 17Z, BUT SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE THEN. NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD STILL EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LESS
WIND.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page