374
FXUS63 KMPX 281741
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRETCH OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. MOST MORNINGS THIS WEEK WILL SEE LOWS NEAR
FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AFTER A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FROM THE 26TH INTO THE 27TH, WE NOW
SLIP INTO A COOL AND DRIER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY. THE WAVE THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN ON MONDAY IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. TODAY, THIS WAVE WILL GET ABSORBED
BY AN H5 LOW OVER MANITOBA. FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, THIS
SPRAWLING CANADIAN H5 LOW WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. IT WILL STALL OUT OVER
QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND, THEN START TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARD
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE SOUTHERN
JET BECOMING DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS, WITH THE PRIMARY
STORM TRACK REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. OUR POSITION TO THE SOUTH OR
WEST OF THE H5 LOW WILL PLACE US IN AN AREA OF PREDOMINATELY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
COOL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN FACT, THE LATEST RUN OF THE
EPS WOULD FAVOR MSP NOT SEEING A HIGH OF 70 AGAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST 10 DAYS OF MAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY FALL INTO THE 30S,
WITH SOME SUB FREEZING LOWS LIKELY IN THERE AS WELL. LOOKING AT
CLIMATOLOGY, FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTH, THE
MEDIAN DATE FOR OUR LAST SPRING FREEZE COMES UP HERE IN THE LAST
WEEK OF APRIL. UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI, THE
MEDIAN DATE FOR THE LAST SPRING FREEZE COMES OUT IN THE FIRST OR
EVEN SECOND WEEK OF MAY. UNFORTUNATELY, OUR GREEN UP FOR
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI IS RUNNING A GOOD 2 WEEKS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE, WHICH MEANS WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FROST/FREEZE
HAZARDS AS THIS EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON MEETS A
TYPICAL COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF APRIL.
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THEY ARE LOW, BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO COME IN THE FORM OF SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE BACK WEST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS POINT, THE STRONGEST WAVE LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH HERE ON
MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED, SO IT WON'T BE A BIG
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. ALTHOUGH THE END OF APRIL INTO EARLY MAY
OFTEN FEATURES THE AWAKENING OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER SEASON, OUR
CONVECTIVE WARNING POLYGONS LOOK TO COLLECT DUST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF MAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS
DURATION. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY INROADS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS
LOOK LIKELY BY ABOUT SUNSET WITH SCT-BKN COVERAGE IN THE 080-120
HEIGHT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. BREEZY/GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE NW AFTER
SUNSET TO NEAR 10KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU-SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SUN...MVFR CEILINGS PSBL. SLGT CHC -SHRA. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
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