166
FXUS63 KMPX 290746
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FROSTS AND FREEZES THIS WEEK COMES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT
- OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE SMALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THIS MORNING WE FIND OURSELVES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF AN
EXPANSIVE H5 LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE IN
QUITE THE BATTLE WITH A GREENLAND BLOCK OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS A
RESULT, WE'LL SEE THE UPPER LOW DRIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND, ONLY TO SEE IT COME BACK NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS PUSHED BACK
WEST BY THE BLOCKING HIGH NEAR GREENLAND.
FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE H5 LOWS CYCLONIC
FLOW. WE'LL SEE NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THIS PATTERN. FOR THE
MOST PART, THESE WAVES WILL JUST RESULT IN CLOUD COVER, THOUGH SOME
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THERE WILL BE NOTHING THAT WOULD UPEND ANY
OUTDOOR PLANS. THE MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH THIS WEEK WILL BE OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF FROST
THREAT WE'LL HAVE IN PARTICULAR, BUT A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOWS
GETTING DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. AGAIN, THERE'S NOTHING
UNUSUAL ABOUT SEEING LOWS AROUND FREEZING AT THE END OF APRIL, BUT
WHEN THE VEGETATION HAS DECIDED TO WAKE UP A COUPLE OF WEEKS EARLY,
WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTFUL LOW TEMPERATURES TO
END THE WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WE GET OUT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT IT DOES NOT
BRING AN END TO NUISANCE RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL SEE CONTINUED
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW. OUR FIRST SHORTWAVE
OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL COME DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH WITH THE FORCING TO SCARE UP SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, NOTHING TO DERAIL
YOUR OUTDOOR PLANS, WITH RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND HOW THE H5 LOW EVOLVES.
THE CANADIAN AND EURO CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING
THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR AND A RENEWED THREAT FOR
FREEZES. BESIDES THE COLD AIR, IT WOULD ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN GOING. AS FOR WHEN WE MAY SEE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'RE WAITING UNTIL
THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY BEFORE WE WARM UP AND ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
GOING TAFS LOOKED TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE, SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE
MADE. WE'LL SEE A GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, BUT
A BKN STRATOCU FIELD UP BETWEEN 6K AND 8K FEET IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THIS DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO TAP INTO SOME STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT, SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCLUDING GUSTS TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN LAMP GUIDANCE. AROUND
SUNSET, WE'LL QUICKLY LOOSE THE GUSTS, WITH ANOTHER GRADUAL
TREND EXPECTED WITH THE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIXING WINDS ON THE RAP SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR SOME 30+ KT GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS PROBABLY A
BIT MUCH, BUT IT DOES SUPPORT THE IDEA OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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