035
FXUS63 KMPX 292320
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROSTS OR FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND ACROSS WESTERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
CU IS MATURING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND EASTERN SD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS SD. SO FAR THE CU REMAINS SHALLOW FARTHER EAST, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MEAGER CAPE DEVELOPING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
AND A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FROST RISK IN CHECK THERE. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO NORTHWEST WI ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH. LEFT
SOUTHERN MN OUT FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOWER RISK. VEGETATION HAS
NOT YET BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE NORTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING, SO NO
HEADLINES THERE FOR THIS ROUND.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN WI. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND INCONSEQUENTIAL.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENINGS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR FREEZING.
ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR EACH OF
THOSE NIGHTS.
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EASES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL CONTINUE SO THE WARMING TREND WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THERE ARE SIGNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY RETURN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SCT TO BKN VFR DECK WILL THIN OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
PATCHES. THURSDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY WITH
INCREASING VFR CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER.
KMSP...NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY 12 KTS OR
LESS. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VFR-BASED CLOUDS WILL THIN OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BROWN-
CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON.
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR DUNN-EAU
CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DPH
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