559
FXUS63 KMPX 300536
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1236 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROSTS OR FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND ACROSS WESTERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
CU IS MATURING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND EASTERN SD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS SD. SO FAR THE CU REMAINS SHALLOW FARTHER EAST, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MEAGER CAPE DEVELOPING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
AND A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE FROST RISK IN CHECK THERE. HOWEVER, THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TO NORTHWEST WI ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS WITH A FROST ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH. LEFT
SOUTHERN MN OUT FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOWER RISK. VEGETATION HAS
NOT YET BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE NORTH OF THE FREEZE WARNING, SO NO
HEADLINES THERE FOR THIS ROUND.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING SOUTHEAST AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN WI. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND INCONSEQUENTIAL.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENINGS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TO NEAR FREEZING.
ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR EACH OF
THOSE NIGHTS.
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH EASES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL CONTINUE SO THE WARMING TREND WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THERE ARE SIGNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY RETURN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
IF YOU LIKED THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, YOU'LL LIKE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WE'RE STILL ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY.
WE'LL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST MN. THE FIRST IS HAPPENING NOW
AND WILL BE DOWN IN IA BY 12Z. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTING FOR MAINLY
RWF/MKT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR COVERAGE
OF 6K-8K FOOT CLOUDS TO EXPAND LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS MIXING
DEEPENS AND WE DEVELOP A SHALLOW, HIGH BASED CU FIELD. THE ONLY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY IS WE
DON'T HAVE AS MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN, WITH LESS GUSTS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NW TO N
WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BROWN-
CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON.
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG
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