207
FXUS63 KMPX 300704
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
204 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROSTS OR FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN
AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
IT'S A RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, WITH WHAT WE SAW
WEDNESDAY BASICALLY REPEATING ITSELF TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE CULPRIT
IS THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON
BAY. THROUGH FRIDAY, WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS
UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS GOING. THE FIRST WAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO IOWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE NEXT WAVE
WAS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NODAK AT 2AM. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST, WITH MOST HREF MEMBERS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GOING DOWN THE MN RIVER VALLEY FROM WEST
CENTRAL DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL ACTIVITY TRIES TO
DEVELOP FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE MPX COVERAGE AREA.
BESIDES THE SHOWER CHANCES, WE'LL HAVE LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FALLING DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, WITH A FROST/FREEZE THREAT
CONTINUING EACH NIGHT, THOUGH IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WE SEE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CLOUD COVER, WE HAVE
NO ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AFTER THIS MORNING, BUT THAT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER EXTENT
EACH NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND, WE FINALLY GET OUT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A MILDER AIRMASS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL (60S). THOUGH WE'LL BE OUT OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW, WE'LL BE IN A PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW, SO NUISANCE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE. THE FIRST WILL COME THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT, WE GET BACK INTO CYCLONIC FLOW AS
THE H5 LOW NUDGES BACK WEST TOWARD NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS MEANS
EVEN MORE NUISANCE SHORTWAVES AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW ALSO LOOKS TO FEATURE A RENEWED PUSH OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S,
WITH LOW AGAIN FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
IF YOU LIKED THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, YOU'LL LIKE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WE'RE STILL ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY.
WE'LL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST MN. THE FIRST IS HAPPENING NOW
AND WILL BE DOWN IN IA BY 12Z. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTING FOR MAINLY
RWF/MKT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR COVERAGE
OF 6K-8K FOOT CLOUDS TO EXPAND LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS MIXING
DEEPENS AND WE DEVELOP A SHALLOW, HIGH BASED CU FIELD. THE ONLY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY IS WE
DON'T HAVE AS MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN, WITH LESS GUSTS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NW TO N
WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BROWN-
CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON.
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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