162
FXUS63 KMPX 301046
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
546 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROSTS OR FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN
AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
IT'S A RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, WITH WHAT WE SAW
WEDNESDAY BASICALLY REPEATING ITSELF TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE CULPRIT
IS THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON
BAY. THROUGH FRIDAY, WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS
UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS GOING. THE FIRST WAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO IOWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE NEXT WAVE
WAS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NODAK AT 2AM. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST, WITH MOST HREF MEMBERS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GOING DOWN THE MN RIVER VALLEY FROM WEST
CENTRAL DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL ACTIVITY TRIES TO
DEVELOP FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE MPX COVERAGE AREA.
BESIDES THE SHOWER CHANCES, WE'LL HAVE LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FALLING DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, WITH A FROST/FREEZE THREAT
CONTINUING EACH NIGHT, THOUGH IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WE SEE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CLOUD COVER, WE HAVE
NO ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AFTER THIS MORNING, BUT THAT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER EXTENT
EACH NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND, WE FINALLY GET OUT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A MILDER AIRMASS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL (60S). THOUGH WE'LL BE OUT OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW, WE'LL BE IN A PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW, SO NUISANCE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE. THE FIRST WILL COME THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT, WE GET BACK INTO CYCLONIC FLOW AS
THE H5 LOW NUDGES BACK WEST TOWARD NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS MEANS
EVEN MORE NUISANCE SHORTWAVES AND MINOR RAIN CHANCES. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW ALSO LOOKS TO FEATURE A RENEWED PUSH OF COOLER AIR FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S,
WITH LOW AGAIN FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
RAIN WILL BE PUSHING INTO IOWA IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF
THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE DRY UNTIL THE WAVE OVER ND ARRIVES,
WHICH LOOKS TO RUN ANOTHER BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOWN THE
MN RIVER FROM WEST CENTRAL TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE PROB30S FOR -SHRA AT AXN AND RWF TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL. THEY MAY GET INTO MKT, BUT BY THEN,
THE SUN WILL BE DOWN AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHING, SO KEPT THEIR
MENTION OUT OF MKT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF NW TO
N WINDS WITH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AS A
SHALLOW CU FIELD BASED BETWEEN 5K AND 8K FEET DEVELOPS.
KMSP...STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT MSP WILL NOT GET INTO ANY SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WITH THOSE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN MN AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF WI.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BROWN-
CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON.
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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