830
FXUS63 KMPX 301731
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROSTS OR FREEZES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN
AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
IT'S A RINSE AND REPEAT KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, WITH WHAT WE
SAW WEDNESDAY BASICALLY REPEATING ITSELF TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE
CULPRIT IS THE BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HUDSON BAY. THROUGH FRIDAY, WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OF THIS UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GOING. THE FIRST WAVE MOVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE MOVING INTO IOWA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THE NEXT WAVE WAS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NODAK AT
2AM. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, WITH MOST HREF MEMBERS
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GOING DOWN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY FROM WEST CENTRAL DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL ACTIVITY TRIES TO DEVELOP FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE MPX COVERAGE AREA. BESIDES THE SHOWER CHANCES, WE'LL
HAVE LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING DOWN TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK, WITH A FROST/FREEZE THREAT CONTINUING EACH NIGHT,
THOUGH IT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WE SEE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CLOUD COVER, WE HAVE NO ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AFTER THIS MORNING, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER EXTENT EACH
NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND, WE FINALLY GET OUT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WHICH
WILL ALLOW A MILDER AIRMASS TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL (60S). THOUGH WE'LL BE
OUT OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW, WE'LL BE IN A PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW, SO NUISANCE SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE. THE FIRST
WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT, WE GET
BACK INTO CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE H5 LOW NUDGES BACK WEST TOWARD
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS MEANS EVEN MORE NUISANCE SHORTWAVES AND
MINOR RAIN CHANCES. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO LOOKS TO FEATURE A
RENEWED PUSH OF COOLER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S, WITH LOW AGAIN FLIRTING
WITH 32 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT, VARYING
BETWEEN SCT-BKN COVERAGE. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN MN, AND ONLY PASSING SHOWERS AT THAT, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE PROB30 MENTION AT BOTH AXN AND RWF FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NW TO N WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS, THOUGH THROUGH SUNSET THERE MAY
BE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
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