493
NOUS43 KMPX 150725
PNSMPX
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-151925-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN
& CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS VERY DRY AIR COMBINES WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS.
- AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE BLOWING
DUST THREAT FRIDAY.
- A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARDS ACROSS MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS & HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SEVERAL DIFFERENT
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, GUSTY WINDS, & A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARDS ACROSS
MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS QUITE STRONG FOR MID-MAY, ANALYZED IN THE
980S MB BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT, COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT MIXING TO AROUND 5-7 KFT, HAS ALLOWED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUST 35-45 MPH ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
OCCLUDE TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA
& WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BY FRIDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20-25%
RANGE WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 35 MPH. THIS IS A PRETTY
CLEAR-CUT RED FLAG SETUP, SO THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & WAS EXPANDED INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BASED
ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FRIDAY, EVEN
THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT, WINDS TURN WESTERLY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS GENERALLY 20-30 MPH.
THE ISSUE IS THAT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE EVEN WARMER &
DRIER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 & RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING
INTO THE 10-20% RANGE DUE TO DEEP MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, ALONG WITH POLK, BARRON, & RUSK COUNTIES IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO & PORTIONS OF
WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG I-94, HOT, DRY, & BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED, BUT ONGOING SPRING GREEN-UP SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE PRODUCED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. THERE
WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY EARLIER TODAY ON HOW MUCH DUST WOULD DEVELOP
GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION & APPROACHING SHOWERS, BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS & MNDOT CAMERAS HAVE CONFIRMED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM DUST. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA WHERE REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. THE BLOWING DUST THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS WINDS
COME DOWN SOMEWHAT, BUT SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
STILL OCCUR IN OPEN & EXPOSED AREAS.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW
MUCAPE GRADIENT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONGER CONVECTION, BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE EXISTS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON &
EVENING. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL BE THE VERY
DRY LOWEST 7-8 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, SO A DECENT AMOUNT OF WHAT IS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS LIKELY VIRGA. STILL, THE STRONGER SHOWERS &
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES & DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR COULD ALSO
HELP BRING STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE, SO A FEW SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTS AROUND OR ABOVE 45 MPH AS
THIS LINE MOVES EAST.
THE FORECAST THEN TURNS WETTER & STORMIER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARDS THROUGH THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN &
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL & SEVERE WEATHER.
BEFORE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ARRIVES, THERE IS ONE FORECAST
WILD CARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARDS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARDS THROUGH MISSOURI &
IOWA. THIS COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO REACH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED THETA-E GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH IN STORMS MAKING IT VERY FAR INTO THE MPX FORECAST
AREA, WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE GRADIENT LIKELY REMAINING FARTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, A FEW CAM RUNS DO BRING CONVECTION NORTH OF I-90
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING,
FORCING THE THETA-E BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT START TO THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS & HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE MORE CONCERNING PERIOD BEGINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE DAY 4 & DAY 5 SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOKS. ON SUNDAY, THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS WITHIN THE
15% SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY, WITH A 30% AREA ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA NEAR & SOUTHWEST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. ON MONDAY, NEARLY
THE ENTIRE MPX FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE 15% SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITY. WHILE TIMING & DETAILS WILL CHANGE, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP SUPPORTS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST ROUND MAY ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A
40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,
HELPING PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS RISING
INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS NORTHWARD-SURGING MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION, & EARLY LONG-RANGE RRFS
RUNS ALREADY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS LIFTING INTO THE AREA
ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THIS FIRST ROUND WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED,
WITH HEAVY RAIN & HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. IN OTHER WORDS, SUNDAY MAY
START OFF LOUD IN A FEW SPOTS.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE SETUP STILL BEARS
WATCHING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. A STOUT EML WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM SHOULD CAP THE ENVIRONMENT FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING & AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STRONG INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES ARE STORM MODE &
WHAT FORCING MECHANISM CAN ACTUALLY BREAK THE CAP, BUT IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER.
ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING RENEWED RAIN &
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO START THE WORK WEEK. PATTERN RECOGNITION &
THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURES WOULD FAVOR EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN MONDAYS TIMING & HAZARDS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW SUNDAY EVOLVES.
BEYOND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SO AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE
FORECAST TURNS MUCH WETTER & STORMIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POSITIVE SIDE IS THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
& RAINFALL SHOULD BRING AN END TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
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